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Informist, Friday, Apr. 17, 2026

 

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--CONTEXT: Comments from SBI Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh 
--SBI Ghosh: GDP growth of near 7% this year will be an achievement 
--SBI Ghosh: Imported inflation can be Achilles heel to inflation outlook 
--SBI Ghosh: India can become transit hub for international tourists 
--SBI Ghosh: Uncertainty in West Asia can bring investments to GIFT city 
--SBI Ghosh: RBI can keep repo rate unchanged for an extended period 
--SBI Ghosh: Impact of war on banks' asset quality minimal 
--SBI Ghosh: Current situation leaves little room for RBI to cut repo rate
 

 

MUMBAI – The Reserve Bank of India could keep the repo rate unchanged for an extended period of time, State Bank of India Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh said at a press conference organised by the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. The event was held to discuss the implications of the confict in West Asia on Indian exporters.

 

Ghosh said that GDP growth rate of 7.0% for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) would be an achievement, given the fallout of the US-Iran war on Indian exports and current account deficit. He warned that imported inflation can be a pain point for India's inflation outlook which was revised to 4.5% by the central bank for the current fiscal. This leaves little room for any cut in the repo rate in the foreseeable future. 

 

"So there is going to be some moderation in growth on all accounts even though the numbers vary and even if we grow close to 7% this year that will be a predictable achievement," Ghosh said. 

 

Speaking about the impact of the West Asia war on Indian banks, Ghosh said Indian banks' asset quality is expected to be minimal as most banks have sufficient buffers to deal with stress, if it arises.  

 

In terms of investment flows to India, Ghosh said that major financial centres like Dubai in West Asia have suffered heavily in the war. This has led to uncertainty around the economic environment in these regions but can provide a boost to local hubs like the GIFT city in Gujarat. 

 

Talking about the impact on travellers due to closedown of major transit hubs in West Asia, Ghosh said it gives Indian aviation sector a major opportunity to emerge as international transit hubs for travellers. Ghosh highlighted that the destruction of key production facilities across Iran and other West Asian regions would take longer to rebuild and excaerbate global uncertainty even if a peace deal was soon struck between the US and Iran.  End

 

Reported by Shruti Nair and Kabir Sharma

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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