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Informist, Friday, Apr. 17, 2026

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – Indian equity indices are expected to continue their upward trend in the coming week, provided there are no negative developments in West Asia. US and Iranian officials are again meeting over the weekend to negotiate, and US President Donald Trump said there would be a "good" deal with Tehran soon.

 

Apart from geopolitical developments, the focus will be on the March quarter earnings, which are expected to be muted overall, as none of the sectors is fully insulated from the impact of the war in West Asia, analysts said. Movements in crude oil prices, which have eased a tad to $95-$96 a barrel, will also be watched by the Street, analysts said. 

 

Friday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24353.55 points, up 156.80 points or 0.7%. The index has risen 1.3% this week, extending gains for the second consecutive week. Prior to this, the index had been under selling pressure for six consecutive weeks.

 

The Nifty 50 is expected to find support at 24000-23800 points in the near-term and face resistance at 24700-24800 points, Amol Athawale, vice-president – technical research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. A fall below 23800 may hit sentiment and the headline index may test 23550-23500 points, he said.  

 

Technical analysts see it necessary for the Nifty 50 to remain above 24000-24300 points for it to continue rising. Some analysts also said the index is currently trading comfortably above short-term averages, which also adds to expectations of a rise. In the near-term, investors are likely to buy on dips. 

 

Analysts are concerned that higher crude oil prices could pose risks to India's economic growth and corporate earnings. High energy and commodity prices are likely to adversely affect companies' profits. They also pointed out that the West Asia crisis has adversely affected micro, small, and medium enterprises, with some having to stop operations due to fuel shortages and high raw material costs.

 

"... there are many MSMEs, I think, which have gone out of business or closed their plants or their factories in, if you see, in more ways, almost entirely shut," an equity dealer at a small finance bank said. "So, eventually, all of this also hampers the banks and NBFCs as well. So, that is one thing which we are yet to see. And I think we will get a fair idea when the banking and NBFC results are out."

 

There are also expectations of a slowdown in credit growth, a weak outlook for the southwest monsoon, and a rise in fertiliser prices due to ammonia shortage. This is likely to adversely affect rural demand, reducing demand for agricultural loans. Analysts tracking the automobile sector said that a slowdown in the rural demand will directly hit two-wheeler and tractor sales. Meanwhile, the consumer durables sector awaits a pickup in demand. While the fast-moving consumer goods sector is expected to raise prices, there could be a hit to its top line if demand falls through, analysts said.

 

Investors would also focus on the earnings of index heavyweights HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, due Saturday. These two banks account for about 19% of the Nifty 50's overall weight.

 

HDFC Bank is expected to report modest profit growth for the March quarter, as the lender's net interest income is likely to moderate. Broking firms have flagged traction on deposits and the credit-deposit ratio as key aspects to monitor. Analysts also await the bank's commentary on developments following the abrupt resignation of chairman Atanu Chakraborty in March, citing differences over "values and ethics". Shares of HDFC Bank closed 0.6% higher at INR 799.90 on Friday. It is expected to move between INR 785 and INR 820 in the near-term, analysts said. 

 

As for ICICI Bank, its net profit is expected to rise on year in the March quarter despite an increase in provisions. The bank is expected to broadly track the sectoral trend of better credit momentum and stable margins during the quarter. Friday, the bank's shares ended at INR 1,346.80, up 0.1% from the previous close. The stock is seen in a range between INR 1,280 and INR 1,400 in the near-term. End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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