More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Apr. 16, 2026

 

By Eshitva Prakash

 

MUMBAI – The benchmark indices are expected to move in a range Friday but the overall sentiment remains positive as equity investors globally expect a swift diplomatic resolution to the war in West Asia. However, the lack of a clear roadmap to achieve peace in the region has deterred investors from placing bullish bets in the near term. Some analysts said crude oil prices need to fall more for the equity market to continue its recovery. The March quarter earnings will lead to stock-specific movement, they said.

The markets will watch for clarity on the second round of US–Iran negotiations, which will guide the near-term trend, Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said. A delegation led by Pakistan's army chief held talks with officials in Iran on the possibility of a new round of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, according to media reports.

 

Meanwhile, West Asia continues to witness hostilities, though the ceasefire between Iran and the US is holding, with Israel's strikes on Lebanon continuing. Lebanon's National News Agency reported that the Israeli army destroyed a key bridge in southern Lebanon.

 

Since analysts expect crude oil prices to stay high for the upcoming quarters, the growth outlook for an emerging market like India has taken a hit. "I am expecting inflation to rise going ahead as supply-chain issues continue to linger," Pravin Bokade, head of research at IDBI Capital, said. "The largest impact will be seen in food, commodity, and fertiliser prices." The analyst sees a sharp risk from increase in fertiliser costs and expectations of lower rainfall in the monsoon season, which will drive demand for agrarian loans lower, hitting the loan books of several lenders in the process.

 

India's merchandise trade deficit fell to $20.7 billion from $27.1 billion in February, primarily because of a sharp fall in imports. According to global brokerage Nomura, this suggests that the impact of the Iran war is yet to play out. Export growth has already reacted to the war, with broad-based weakness seen across categories. The data show the impact of the war in the sharp deterioration in export growth, but it is probably yet to show up in higher import growth, reflecting the lagged impact of the sharp rise in crude oil prices, Nomura said in a research report. The brokerage sees "extreme turbulence" ahead for India, with every 10% increase in merchandise deficit typically adding around 0.4% of GDP to the current account deficit.

 

A higher-than-expected WPI print will continue to dent demand for automobile and other consumption-related stocks, Bokade said. Other than the threat posed by a near-term spike in crude oil prices, the persistent flight of foreign portfolio investors and the depreciation of the rupee have made recovery difficult, he added. Among sectors, the analyst is bullish on metals owing to the supply-demand mismatch arising from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Macroeconomic data from China have also been healthy, leading to expectations of higher demand in the future, analysts said.

 

Information technology major Wipro released its earnings for the March quarter after market hours Thursday. The company reported a net profit of INR 35.02 billion, in line with consensus expectations. However, its consolidated revenue at INR 242.36 billion fell short of analysts' expectations. Wipro said it would complete the INR 150-billion share buyback by the June quarter.

 

Stocks of HDFC Life Insurance Co. will also be in focus after the company reported a third consecutive quarter of sub-5% on-year growth in bottom line. Loss on investments weighed on its net profit for the March quarter. It reported a net profit of INR 6.23 billion, slightly below Street estimates.

 

Friday, Jio Financial Services will report its earnings for the quarter. On Saturday, HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank are scheduled to release their earnings, which analysts have mixed opinions on. They said slow credit growth and lower treasury income will weigh on the profitability of the two index heavyweights.

 

The Nifty 50 settled at 24196.75 points Thursday, down 34.55 points or 0.1%. The BSE Sensex closed at 77988.68 points, down 122.56 points or 0.2%. The 50-stock index will face resistance at 24400 points and find support at 24100–24000 levels, Nandish Shah, deputy vice-president at HDFC Securities, said.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.