Structural Deficit
Silver institute sees global deficit widening 15% in 2026, supply falling 2%
This story was originally published at 21:53 IST on 15 April 2026
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NEW DELHI – The deficit in global silver market is expected to widen to 46.3 million troy ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million troy ounces in 2025 amid robust demand for bars and coins and declining mine supplies, the Silver Institute said Wednesday. This will be the sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, as silver use in segments such as jewellery and industries is seen softening, but it remains insufficient to eliminate structural tightness, it added.
The institute has forecast global silver supplies to fall 2% to 1,066.4 million troy ounces in 2026 as modest increases in recycling will only partly offset declining mine production. "India will account for much of the forecast rise for jewelry and silverware recycling this year, as stronger domestic prices encourage higher flows," the institute said in its World Silver Survey 2026 report.
Meanwhile, the institute has forecast global silver demand to fall 2% to 1,112.6 million troy ounces in 2026, marking the second consecutive year of decline.
"High prices will push jewelry fabrication down to 159.4 Moz (million troy ounce), a five-year low, particularly in India (-18%), due to light weighting and constrained rural demand," the institute said. It has also forecast reduced use of silver in industries such as electrical & electronics, photography, jewellery, and silverware.
However, demand for silver coins and net bar is set to grow 18% and attain the highest level since 2022, it added.
On prices, the institute sees silver prices to remain firm and volatile through 2026, supported by tight supplies, elevated lease rates, and sustained investor demand. On Jan. 29, silver prices surged to an all-time high of over $121 per ounce.
Following is the forecast for silver supply and demand in 2026, compared with the estimates for 2025, given in million troy ounces, and their percentage change:
| 2026 (forecast) | 2025 | % change | |
| Mine production | 844.1 | 846.6 | -0.3 |
| Recycles | 211.3 | 197.6 | 6.9 |
| Total supplies | 1,066.40 | 1,090.40 | -2.2 |
| Total industrial | 639.6 | 657.4 | -3.0 |
| Electrical & electronics | 422.9 | 449.5 | -5.9 |
| Other industrial | 165.7 | 157.4 | 5.3 |
| Photography | 22.5 | 24.2 | -7 |
| Jewellery | 159.4 | 189.3 | -16 |
| silverware | 33.5 | 42.1 | -20 |
| coins & net bar demand | 257.6 | 217.7 | 18 |
| Total demand | 1,112.60 | 1,130.60 | -2 |
| Market balance | -46.3 | -40.3 | 15 |
End
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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