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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2026

 

By Divya Moolayattil  

 

MUMBAI - HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd.'s net profit is expected to stay steady on year in the March quarter, supported by resilient equity inflows and sustained contributions from systematic investment plans. However, a sharp correction in equity markets during the quarter is likely to weigh on the average assets under management, leading to a sequential decline in profit.

 

HDFC AMC's net profit is seen at INR 6.40 billion, broadly flat from the year-ago period but down nearly 17% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from eight brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 7 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. and the lowest is INR 5.87 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

A sharp decline in other income is likely to be a key drag on HDFC AMC's net profit in the March quarter. In the December quarter, asset managers benefited from mark-to-market gains on their investment books. However, the March quarter saw a sharp equity correction.

 

Nuvama expects other income to fall 23% on year and 40% on quarter. Motilal Oswal expects the company's other income to fall 90% both on year and on quarter to INR 123 million due to a correction in the equity market and rising bond yields. The impact on net profit due to the sharp fall in other income could be limited due to active equity net inflows and SIP flows. 

 

HDFC AMC's quarterly average assets under management is expected to rise 20-23% on year and fall 2.8% on quarter, according to estimates from two brokerages. HDFC AMC's assets under management were INR 9.21 trillion as on Dec. 31. 

 

YES Securities (India) Ltd. said in its report that HDFC AMC's overall assets under management levels in February were up 1.8% from December. However, due to the equity market correction in March – with returns from the Nifty 50 falling 9.4% and from Nifty Midcap 100 sliding 8.5% amid the West Asia war – the assets under management growth for the March quarter is likely to take a hit. HDFC AMC's equity assets under management are likely to remain flat sequentially for the March quarter. The fund house's equity assets under management were INR 6.16 trillion as on Dec. 31.

 

The asset manager's revenue from operations is estimated at INR 10.49 billion, up over 16% on year, but down over 2% sequentially. YES Securities (India) Ltd.'s estimate for the company's revenue of INR 10.22 billion is the lowest and Nuvama's estimate of INR 10.70 billion is the highest.

 

HDFC AMC's revenue yield is expected to decline 0.3–0.7 basis points on quarter due to changes in asset mix, reflecting a lower equity mix and higher commodity mix. The industry's revenue yield is expected to decline by 0.5 basis points to 48.3 bps sequentially, according to Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. 

 

The brokerages expect revenue yields to broadly move in line with changes in the equity mix and estimates a marginal sequential decline in EBITDA margins for HDFC AMC. As a result, revenue is expected to remain broadly stable sequentially, even as year-on-year growth stays healthy due to higher average assets under management compared with last year.

 

The key developments to look out for will be the management's commentary on sustainability of equity and systematic investment plan inflows, revenue yields and total expense ratio trends, and updates on new fund launches. HDFC AMC will announce its March quarter earnings Thursday.

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 3,073 per share. Only one brokerage has a 'hold' rating on the fund house.

 

Shares of HDFC AMC have risen nearly 4% since the company reported its December quarter earnings on Jan. 14. Shares of the company closed 4.6% higher Wednesday at INR 2,663.70 apiece on the National Stock Exchange.

 

Following are the Jan-Mar earnings estimates for HDFC AMC from eight brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	10.70	7.00
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	10.30	6.80
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	10.67	6.55
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	10.65	6.39
Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd	10.50	6.22
Kotak Securities Ltd	10.38	6.20
Yes Securities (India) Ltd	10.22	6.17
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	10.50	5.87
Average	10.49	6.4

 

 

End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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