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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2026

MUMBAI – Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, which are currently prevailing over the tropical Pacific Ocean, are expected to persist at least till late Southern Hemisphere autumn, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report Tuesday. The tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to continue warming in the coming months, reaching El Nino thresholds by July, the weather bureau said.

Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere spans from March to June, winter from June to September, and spring from September to December. 

Atmospheric indicators, such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean currently reflect neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions. The Madden Julian Oscillation is expected to bring westerly wind anomalies to the western Pacific Ocean in the coming fortnight, which is likely to further enhance the warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, the weather bureau said. 

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was (-)0.27 degrees, firmly within the neutral range, the bureau said. A recent pulse of warming in the sub-surface suggests further warming of sea surface temperatures in the coming weeks. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

All international climate models, including that of the Australian bureau, indicate warming to levels consistent with El Nino by July. However, there is a variation across models in the rate at which El Nino thresholds could be reached. Some models suggest an El Nino development as early as May, while others show a slower warming, with thresholds not being met until July, the bureau said. Ocean-atmosphere coupling, where the ocean and atmosphere act to reinforce each other, is required for a sustained El Nino event, it said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, the weather bureau said. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index is 0.60 degrees. All climate models indicate that the index is likely to remain neutral till the end of autumn, and most models indicate a possibility of transition to positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions in either Southern Hemisphere winter or spring, it said. However, forecast uncertainty associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently high, with all models showing a large spread of possible outcomes, the bureau said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

According to the India Meteorological Department, weak La Nina-like conditions persist at present and are transitioning to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Development of El Nino conditions are likely during the southwest monsoon season, the Indian weather department said. "El Nino conditions will most likely result in lower rainfall from August," M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said while presenting the Indian weather department's first estimate for 2026 southwest monsoon on Monday.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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