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Informist, Monday, Apr. 13, 2026

 

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--IMD: India 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall seen 92% of long-period avg 
--CONTEXT: IMD releases its first estimate for 2026 southwest monsoon 
--IMD: See weak La Nina conditions moving towards El Nino 
--IMD: To come out with second monsoon forecast in May 
--IMD: India 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall to be below normal 
--IMD: El Nino conditions likely to continue during monsoon season 
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevailing currently 
--IMD: See positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions towards end of monsoon 
--IMD: See 31% chance of below normal rains during Jun-Sept 
--IMD: El Nino conditions very likely during southwest monsoon season 
--IMD:See below normal rains in areas other than Northeast, Northwest, South 
--IMD: Not necessary that all El Nino years will be bad 
--IMD: Of the 17 El Nino years since 1951, four were good 
--IMD:See chances of normal rains in Jun-Jul, below-normal rains in Aug-Sept

 

NEW DELHI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau Monday said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.

 

According to the weather bureau's forecasts for the season, there is 31% chance of below-normal monsoon rains, 35% of deficient rainfall, and 27% of normal showers. The bureau sees only 6% chance of above-normal rains and only 1% chance of excess rainfall.

 

"Winter and spring snow cover extent over the northern hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall," the department said. The snow cover in the northern hemisphere areas during Jan-Mar was below normal, it said.  

 

"The IMD's forecast of a sub-par monsoon, at 92% of LPA, owing to El Nino conditions, is the lowest first long-range forecast in at least 26 years," according to credit rating agency ICRA Ltd. The spatial distribution suggests that the below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many parts of the country except some parts of northeast, northwest, and south peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely.

 

Last week, private weather forecaster Skymet had also predicted the southwest monsoon to be below normal at 94% of the long-period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%. In June, the monsoon is likely to be stable, before weakening from July to September due to the onset and strengthening of the El Nino climate pattern, the weather agency said.

 

According to the weather bureau, there are chances of normal rains in June and July while rainfall is likely to be below normal in August and September. While M. Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, insisted that it is "not necessary that all El Nino years will be bad", historical data show higher occurrence of below-normal rains in El Nino years. "Of the 17 El Nino years since 1951, four were good," Ravichandran said.

 

El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India. La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Asked about the impact of the prediction on kharif sowing in the crop year 2026-27 (Jul-Jun), India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, "Good rainfall in June and July should not impact the sowing of kharif crops." Mohapatra also said the department does not see drought-like conditions developing in the country during the monsoon season.

 

As per the weather bureau, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently prevail and the latest climate model forecast indicates that positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole results in reduced rainfall in India. A positive dipole results in better rainfall. Typically, a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event during the monsoon season has the potential to partially negate the impact of El Nino on the monsoon.

 

As per the bureau, weak La Nina-like conditions persist at present and are transitioning to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which is likely to result in the development of El Nino conditions during the southwest monsoon season. "El Nino conditions will most likely result in lower rainfall from August," Ravichandran said.

 

The weather bureau is likely to issue its second monsoon forecast in May.  End

 

Reported by Pallavi Singhal and Afra Abubacker

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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