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Informist, Friday, Apr. 10, 2026

 

By Shweta

 

MUMBAI – India's WPI inflation likely rose to a three-year high in March due to a broad-based rise in wholesale prices, particularly crude oil prices, amid the ongoing war in West Asia. According to an Informist Poll of 10 economists, WPI inflation is expected to have risen to 3.6% in March from 2.13% in February.

 

Estimates for WPI inflation range from 2.6% to 4.0%. The commerce ministry will release WPI data for March at 1200 IST Tuesday. The last time WPI inflation was higher than 3.6% was in February 2023, when it was 3.85%. In March 2025, WPI inflation was 2.25%.

 

Rise in crude oil and natural gas prices, which jumped after the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, are likely to push WPI inflation higher in March, economists said. "March WPI inflation is likely to show a larger impact due to a greater pass-through of energy prices," Standard Chartered Bank said in a report. WPI 'crude petroleum and natural gas' category is seen turning inflationary in March, a first since August 2024.

 

"The spurt in headline WPI was contributed to all three segments of food, fuel and core," Union Bank of India said in a note. Economists see WPI food inflation rising to 2.5-3.0% in March from 1.9% in February.

 

In March, wholesale prices of vegetables declined on a month-on-month basis. Tomato prices fell nearly 16% on month, according to data available with the Department of Consumer Affairs. Wholesale prices of potato and onion also declined 6?ch from February. Wholesale prices of some edible oils rose up to 2% on month in March.

 

Economists at Union Bank expect food inflation to "firm up further in the coming months due spill overs from the West Asia war oil price hike affecting supply chains, seasonal summer pressures and the waning of favourable base effects."

 

Core WPI inflation, which excludes food and fuel items, is expected to have risen to 3.7% in March from 3.3% in February, according to the Informist Poll. Core WPI inflation is seen rising in March because of a surge in global commodity prices after the war in West Asia escalated and the rupee depreciated against the dollar, economists said.

 

WPI remains marginally higher than its retail counterpart. According to a separate Informist Poll, CPI inflation is expected to have risen to 3.4% in March from 3.21% in February.

 

The following is a summary of the poll by Informist on WPI inflation in March, in ascending order:

 

ORGANISATION	WPI INFLATION ESTIMATES
CareEdge Ratings	2.6%
Union Bank of India	3.08%
Sunidhi Securities	3.33%
Bank of Baroda	3.5%
STCI Primary Dealer	3.6%
YES Bank	3.6%
India Ratings and Research	3.7%
Nirmal Bang Equities	3.7%
Standard Chartered Bank	3.7%
ICRA	4.0%

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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