FMCG Stocks Outlook
In range; earnings view bleak on high commodity prices
This story was originally published at 18:34 IST on 10 April 2026
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MUMBAI – Shares of fast-moving consumer goods companies are expected to continue moving in a range, unless there is a trigger for the sector. Analysts don't see big surprises on the upside from the March-quarter and 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) earnings of FMCG companies. However, they expect the earnings to be subdued given the rise in commodity prices.
"Earnings outlook for FY27 now looks fairly bleak, particularly because the commodity cost inflation, power and fuel inflation, logistics inflation, will be a thing at least for H1 (Apr-Sept)," a FMCG analyst at a domestic brokerage said. "Overall demand, so not just West Asia, but also the fact that you have had unseasonal rains, which can affect the Rabi output, or at least the quality of the Rabi output, which can impact farm incomes," he said.
Analysts said the March quarter witnessed some disruption towards the end, with unseasonal weather impacting seasonal categories and geopolitical tensions leading to a spike in crude oil prices, particularly hitting the packaging and logistics sector. This was coupled with disruption in demand in select international markets such as the West Asia. Moreover, the 2026 southwest monsoon in India is expected to be below normal at 94% of the long period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet.
Given the rise in inflation along with the Reserve Bank of India's projection of CPI inflation for FY27 at 4.6%, the FMCG analyst believes there are fairly good chances that companies would increase product prices. In a soft demand environment, the companies will not be able to pass on the entire impact of raw materials, power, fuel, and logistics, he said.
"If the Rabi crop quality is not great, if Kharif also gets impacted because of lower than usual rain in the current year, how are they going to pass on the entire benefit, the entire impact of the raw materials," the analyst said. "And the GST reductions, whatever demand had to pick up because of GST reduction, that has already happened," he added. He expects the general urban trade to remain weak for a few more quarters, as has been the case for the last 6-7 quarters.
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities expects the companies under its coverage to post around 7.4% on-year revenue growth, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation declining almost 1.3% on year and net profit falling 1.8% on year. This reflects stable demand but pressure on margins due to rising input costs and disruptions late in the quarter, the brokerage said.
On Friday, the Nifty FMCG index closed 1.2% higher at 48194.05 points. The Nifty 50 settled at 24050.60, up 275.50 points or 1.2%. The BSE Sensex ended at 77550.25, up 918.60 points or 1.2%. For the week, the sectoral index closed 4.2% higher, slightly lower than the benchmark Nifty 50 that closed 5.9% higher.
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Following are the resistance and support levels for key FMCG stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % |
Resistance | Support |
| AWL Agri Business | 182.26 | (-)0.80 | 188.70 | 174.60 |
| Britannia Industries | 5,557.50 | 2.10 | 5,675.80 | 5,345.80 |
| Colgate Palmolive India | 1,939.10 | 6.00 | 1,966.60 | 1,890.20 |
| Dabur India | 435.70 | 4.40 | 445.80 | 419.70 |
| Emami | 424.15 | 6.50 | 431.90 | 414.30 |
| Godrej Consumer Products | 1,078.10 | 8.40 | 1,101.40 | 1,039.70 |
| Hindustan Unilever | 2,155.30 | 4.40 | 2,197.50 | 2,100.30 |
| ITC | 304.25 | 3.90 | 306.90 | 301.30 |
| Jyothy Labs | 225.27 | 8.30 | 229.90 | 219.40 |
| Marico | 763.25 | 0.30 | 774.00 | 743.20 |
| Nestle India | 1,249.30 | 4.90 | 1,266.80 | 1,220.40 |
| Procter & Gamble Hygiene and Health Care | 9,788.00 | 0.30 | 9,953.00 | 9,560.00 |
| Tata Consumer Products | 1,093.70 | 5.00 | 1,106.30 | 1,072.70 |
| Varun Beverages | 431.60 | 6.90 | 439.20 | 421.30 |
| Index | Levels | |||
| Nifty FMCG | 48,194.05 | 4.20 | 48,689.90 | 47,384.20 |
| Nifty 50 | 24,050.60 | 5.90 | 24,211.40 | 23,776.00 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 77550.25 | 5.80 | 78112.60 | 76570.00 |
End
Reported by Simran Rede
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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