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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 9, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to consolidate Friday as investors await further clarity on the ceasefire between the US and Iran. The overall market sentiment is expected to remain cautious amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties and continued foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Market participants will now keep an eye on updates on the US-Iran talks to be held in Islamabad. 

 

Globally, investor sentiment turned negative after the fragile ceasefire agreed between the US and Iran showed signs of strain, renewing concerns that the conflict in West Asia could escalate again and disrupt energy supplies. After falling over 13% in the previous session, crude oil prices resumed their upward trend after traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited and US President Donald Trump said the US military will remain around Iran until a "real agreement" is reached and fully complied with.

 

Further, several media reports said that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz again in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate the ceasefire agreement and would render ‌negotiations meaningless, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said, according to an Al Jazeera report. Earlier in the day, Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had claimed that the US has breached three elements of the temporary ceasefire agreement, including Israel's ongoing strikes in Lebanon, a drone entering Iranian airspace, and what he described as the denial of Tehran's right to enrich uranium. 

"The announcement of the two-week window is basically to negotiate. It's not a resolution as such... so we have to see how things pan out over the next two weeks or so," Amit Kumar Gupta, founder of Fintrekk Capital, said. A gradual bounce back in the headline indices to pre-war levels is expected if the war in West Asia comes to an end, he said,  adding that "the market needs to be sure about that there will be no further escalations."

 

However, given the current uncertain geopolitical scenario, high energy prices, and expectations of a below-normal monsoon due to El Nio, which will increase "rural stress going forward", Gupta expects the Nifty 50 index to remain in the 23500-24500 range over the next six months. "I think in general, (next) 6 months basically is a problem. There are a lot of headwinds at this point of time," Gupta said. "And then depending on how the (earnings) data unfolds, it (Nifty 50) will probably make a decisive move."

 

Gupta expects FY27 earnings to take a hit from higher energy and transportation costs stemming from the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of the West Asia conflict. "Now, whether that hit is for only one month, two months, or will it be longer, we have to see. It depends on how much crude stays in this range of $90 to $110 (per barrel)," he added. 

 

Foreign portfolio investors continued to be net sellers Wednesday, selling domestic equities worth around INR 28 billion. They had been on a selling spree since the beginning of the war in West Asia. Though outflow of foreign funds has declined slightly in the past few days, analysts don't see any signs of them returning to full swing anytime soon. "I don't see a major reason why FIIs (foreign institutional investors) should come back, at least this year, at least till crude is up," Gupta said. 

 

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 index settled at 23775.10, down 222.25 points, or 0.9%. The BSE Sensex closed at 76631.65, down 931.25 points or 1.2%. Thursday, the 50-stock index is expected to find support at 23650–23700 points and resistance at 24000–24150 points, Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. 

 

Shares of Information technology services major Tata Consultancy Services will be in focus on Friday after the company reported, in post-market hours Thursday, sharp sequential growth in its bottom line for the March quarter, as top-line growth outpaced total expenses. The company's consolidated net profit rose almost 29% sequentially and over 12% on year to INR 137.18 billion for the March quarter. This was slightly lower than the INR 137.78 billion estimated by brokerages. Its consolidated revenue for the quarter rose over 5% sequentially and nearly 10% on year to INR 706.98 billion, beating analysts' estimate of INR 697.86 billion.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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