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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 9, 2026

 

By Anshul Choudhary

 

MUMBAI – Analysts expect high costs to hit the earnings growth of companies in the March quarter, an otherwise better quarter that saw improvement in revenue growth. The US-Iran conflict pushed gas prices higher and interrupted the supply of key raw materials, which is likely to have resulted in higher costs for companies, brokerages said.

 

The 49 constituents of the Nifty 50 index for which estimates were available are likely to report a cumulative net profit growth of just over 3% for the March quarter over the same quarter last year, according to an Informist poll of 16 brokerages. The latest quarter's earnings estimates were compared with the year-ago figures of adjusted net profit, which exclude exceptional items. Earnings estimates were not available for Adani Enterprises Ltd.

 

The 3% growth in cumulative net profit is sharply lower than the 9% profit growth Nifty 50 companies reported for the December quarter, indicating the significant impact of the US-Iran conflict. The expected growth is still better than the near 1?cline in earnings these companies had reported for the March quarter last year.

 

A large part of the hit to earnings growth is due to only two companies – InterGlobe Aviation Ltd. and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicle Ltd. InterGlobe Aviation is likely to report a net loss of INR 24.48 billion for the quarter after the US-Iran war hit its airline business in West Asia. This is a swing of more than INR 55 billion from the net profit in the year-ago March quarter. While Tata Motors PV is expected to report a net profit for the March quarter after two quarters of reporting losses, the bottom line will still be down more than 50% on year. Excluding InterGlobe and Tata Motors PV, the cumulative net profit of the remaining 47 companies is expected to rise just over 8% on year--significantly better the expectation of only 3% growth including the two companies.

 

To enable a like-to-like comparison, the net profit and revenue of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles for the year-ago quarter was calculated by adding the figures of Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Passenger Vehicles. Tata Motors PV demerged from Tata Motors last year and started releasing its earnings separately from the September quarter.

 

While the profitability of the index companies was under pressure due to higher costs, the cut in the goods and service tax has helped improve demand and revenue for several sectors. The sales growth of the 49 companies is expected to rise 12% on year during the March quarter, better than the 9% growth in the December quarter and 6% in the year-ago quarter. If this estimate comes true, it will be the first quarter in three years when the revenue growth crosses the 10% mark. Several sectors reported better sales growth, including automobile, financial services, retail, and select pharmaceutical and healthcare companies.

 

Sequentially, the net profit of the 49 companies is expected to rise nearly 2% during the reporting quarter and revenue is seen rising 8.5%. The quarter-ago net profit figures used for comparison exclude exceptional items and labour code implementation costs.

 

SECTORAL TRENDS

Automobile companies continued to benefit from lower GST on cars and two-wheelers, and reported strong sales growth. The growth in retail sales volume of automobile companies improved to nearly 23% in the March quarter from the near 19% rise in the December quarter, data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations showed. Owing to higher volumes, the cumulative revenue of the five automobile companies in the Nifty 50 index is expected to rise 18% on year.

 

The net profit growth for Bajaj Auto and Mahindra & Mahindra is seen strong but higher costs may affect the earnings growth of Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors. Some companies were forced to use expensive alternatives to natural gas in their factories as gas was in short supply after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in March. The cumulative net profit of the five automobile companies is expected to be down 11% on year, largely due to the sharp fall in the net profit of Tata Motors PV. Excluding Tata Motors PV, the net profit of the remaining four automobile companies is likely to rise 21% on year.

 

Credit growth improved further in the March quarter, indicating banks continue to benefit from lower GST on products. Credit growth for scheduled banks had risen to 14.5% by the end of February, but moderated slightly to 13.8% by the first fortnight of March, as demand was hit because of the US-Iran war. The 13.8% credit growth is still better than the 11% growth during the same period last year.

 

Banks could not fully benefit from better credit growth as yields on advances were down after the Reserve Bank of India cut its repo rate by 25 basis points in December. Banks are likely to be a drag on the index companies' aggregate growth as the five index banks' net interest income is expected to rise only 7% on year.

 

The cost side benefit for banks from lower rates was missing in the March quarter as banks have not reduced their deposit rates since the RBI cut the repo rate in December, brokerages said. Due to high deposit rates, the net interest margin is likely to remain range-bound, against expectations a few months back that it would rise.

 

"NIMs are expected to stay under pressure due to elevated interest rates and tight liquidity conditions, further impacted by firm bond yields," IDBI Capital Markets & Securities said in its earnings preview report. Owing to this, the cumulative net profit of the five index banks is expected to rise 4% on year, earnings estimates showed.

 

While GST cuts have helped improve demand for automobiles, lower taxes have not had a material impact on demand for daily-use products. The war in West Asia has not affected the sales of fast-moving consumer goods companies in the Nifty 50 index as these companies have limited exposure to West Asia, but unseasonal rains in India affected demand for products in the summer category.

 

The surge in crude oil prices, insurance costs, and shipping charges due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a rise in input costs for all consumer companies. "The input cost environment remained volatile during 4QFY26 with relatively benign trends in Jan–Feb'26 followed by a sharp uptick in crude oil, crude-linked inputs and palm oil in March in the wake of geopolitical developments in West Asia," JM Financial Securities said in a report. The cumulative revenue of FMCG companies in the index is likely to rise 8% on year, but the net profit is expected to rise only 3%.

 

Oil and gas companies are expected to see a mixed quarter due to a sharp rise in Brent crude oil prices. Oil and Natural Gas Corp., which sells crude oil, is likely to benefit from higher oil realisation and report a 32% rise in net profit for the March quarter. However, Reliance Industries Ltd., for which crude oil is a key raw material, is expected to report a 2?ll in net profit. "O2C (oil-to-chemical) business to face headwinds from high crude premiums, higher freight costs, higher insurance premiums, increased LPG output as per government guidance, fuel retailing loss, and K-G gas diverted to other sectors," Nomura said in a report, commenting on Reliance Industries' performance.

 

Following are the Jan-Mar consensus earnings estimates of companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 50 index. These estimates are based on reports compiled by Informist Media from 16 brokerage houses.

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
AIRPORTS & AVIATION
Interglobe Aviation	227,620	(24,480)	2.75	N.A.	(3.02)	N.A.	27,679	--	3
Total	227,620	(24,480)	2.75	N.A.	(3.02)	N.A.
AUTO
Bajaj Auto	158,114	26,487	30.16	29.25	3.88	3.30	32,497	--	7
Eicher Motors +	59,380	14,287	13.30	4.89	(2.88)	(3.21)	14,915	--	7
M&M	382,643	34,548	21.06	41.76	(1.74)	(14.26)	54,717	May. 5	7
Maruti Suzuki	513,052	40,602	26.14	9.41	2.83	(7.47)	62,079	--	7
Tata Motors PV +	1,101,000	33,367	12.92	(53.66)	57.04	N.A.	92,311	--	6
Total	2,214,189	149,291	18.30	(10.92)	22.82	41.26
BANK
AXIS Bank *	146,291	68,780	5.93	(3.36)	2.40	(0.66)	N.A.	--	7
HDFC Bank *	335,765	188,976	4.71	7.27	2.95	(2.86)	N.A.	Apr. 18	7
ICICI Bank *	226,764	129,202	7.00	2.30	3.39	12.71	N.A.	Apr. 18	6
Kotak Mahindra *	77,814	36,832	6.84	3.70	2.87	3.99	N.A.	--	7
SBI *	466,782	195,897	9.13	5.08	3.29	(6.84)	N.A.	--	6
Total	1,253,416	619,686	7.01	4.05	3.09	(0.71)
CAPITAL GOODS
Bharat Electronics	95,771	20,465	5.02	(2.77)	34.47	27.38	26,983	--	5
L&T +	830,539	56,124	11.64	11.75	16.24	23.11	89,977	--	3
Total	926,310	76,589	10.92	7.46	17.89	24.22
CEMENT
UltraTech Cement +	262,266	27,817	13.72	11.65	20.14	53.29	52,777	Apr. 27	6
Total	262,266	27,817	13.72	11.65	20.14	53.29
CHEMICAL
Asian Paints +	87,511	10,637	4.69	21.56	(1.31)	(12.63)	15,813	--	6
Grasim Industries	105,456	(1,724)	18.15	N.A.	1.09	N.A.	4,294	--	3
Total	192,967	8,914	11.64	27.14	(0.01)	(18.28)
FINANCE
Bajaj Finance *+	121,573	54,285	23.96	21.18	7.42	27.94	N.A.	Apr. 29	5
Bajaj Finserv + @	439,193	27,371	20.01	13.26	10.61	4.92	N.A.	Apr. 30	1
HDFC Life Insurance Co. >	266,700	4,800	10.98	0.73	41.84	(8.88)	N.A.	Apr. 16	1
Jio Financial Services *+	4,323	4,123	61.25	30.43	48.17	52.18	N.A.	--	1
SBI Life Insurance Co. >	269,000	7,900	12.08	(2.89)	(11.66)	10.92	N.A.	--	1
Shriram Finance*	69,572	27,405	25.01	28.10	5.83	0.80	N.A.	--	6
Total	1,170,360	125,884	16.72	18.29	9.23	13.61
FMCG
Hindustan Unilever	161,694	26,054	6.28	3.55	2.31	(7.45)	37,390	Apr. 30	7
ITC	182,214	48,170	5.64	(1.18)	1.13	(10.18)	59,674	--	7
Nestle India	62,531	9,652	13.61	9.01	10.34	12.09	15,106	Apr. 21	7
Tata Consumer Product +	52,611	4,071	14.17	35.91	2.92	(0.09)	7,474	--	7
Total	459,049	87,946	7.82	2.55	2.92	(6.90)
IT
HCL Tech +	344,796	47,225	14.00	9.65	1.79	(6.15)	70,687	Apr. 21	16
Infosys +	466,267	75,527	13.93	7.39	2.52	(4.91)	109,895	Apr. 23	16
TCS +	698,399	137,899	8.31	12.81	4.10	(1.84)	191,341	Apr. 9	16
Tech Mahindra +	148,115	14,886	10.67	27.59	2.91	6.75	25,164	Apr. 22	16
Wipro +	245,428	34,989	9.06	(1.98)	4.19	2.25	49,477	Apr. 16	16
Total	1,903,005	310,526	10.94	9.73	3.21	(2.47)
JEWELLERY
Titan Co.	200,115	12,728	48.49	46.30	(11.15)	(20.85)	20,838	--	4
Total	200,115	12,728	48.49	46.30	(11.15)	(20.85)
METAL & MINING
Hindalco Industries +	745,393	47,959	14.87	(9.12)	12.05	1.65	89,809	May. 22	5
JSW Steel +	490,147	26,614	9.36	72.04	6.57	(0.25)	82,396	May. 14	5
Tata Steel +	607,796	32,365	8.11	91.57	6.63	14.42	93,886	--	5
Total	1,843,335	106,939	11.09	25.61	8.74	4.69
OIL & GAS
ONGC	369,426	84,917	5.60	31.69	17.11	1.43	189,417	--	6
Reliance Ind +	2,813,186	189,359	7.62	(2.43)	6.20	1.56	456,637	--	9
Total	3,182,612	274,275	7.39	6.08	7.36	1.52
PHARMA, Healthcare
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise +	64,624	4,679	15.56	20.09	(0.23)	(10.29)	9,340	--	5
Cipla +	66,680	7,627	(0.92)	(37.58)	(5.75)	(19.86)	10,631	May. 13	4
Dr. Reddy's Lab +	83,511	8,816	(2.08)	(44.67)	(4.60)	(33.56)	15,072	May. 12	5
Max Healthcare Institute +	26,295	4,163	37.69	30.50	27.18	19.23	6,775	--	5
Sun Pharma +	146,574	29,808	13.11	18.49	(5.56)	(22.74)	41,097	--	5
Total	387,684	55,092	8.54	(8.78)	(2.82)	(21.38)
POWER
Adani Enterprises +	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	N.A.	--	--
Coal India +	381,355	89,351	0.82	(6.97)	9.20	24.84	115,651	--	5
NTPC	464,176	56,966	5.73	(1.41)	14.21	14.23	130,882	--	4
Power Grid	127,296	43,682	15.91	0.74	15.67	5.00	109,559	--	4
Total	972,827	189,999	4.93	(3.64)	12.37	16.53
PORTS
Adani Ports and SEZ +	96,734	32,022	13.96	5.38	(0.32)	0.08	56,392	--	4
Total	96,734	32,022	13.96	5.38	(0.32)	0.08
RETAIL
Trent	48,923	3,954	19.15	13.00	(6.98)	(40.59)	8,386	--	2
Total	48,923	3,954	19.15	13.00	(6.98)	(40.59)
SERVICES
Eternal +	179,990	1,573	208.57	303.40	10.32	54.24	4,736	--	4
Total	179,990	1,573	208.57	303.40	10.32	54.24
TELECOM
Bharti Airtel +	555,449	76,290	16.02	45.35	2.90	10.77	318,038	--	5
Total	555,449	76,290	16.02	45.35	2.90	10.77
Nifty Total	16,076,852	2,135,044	12.02	3.19	8.53	1.91

 

Notes:

+ Consolidated Figure

* Net interest Income

Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

# Net premium income

@ Total income

> Gross premium income

N.A.: Not Available

 

Estimates from:

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd, Centrum Broking Ltd, Dolat Capital Market Pvt Ltd, Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, Equirus Securities Pvt Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, ICICI Securities Ltd, IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Securities Ltd, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

End

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagatap and Mayur Nijap

Edited by Avishek Dutta 

 

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