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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 7, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – After ending higher for four sessions in a row, the benchmark equity indices may fall Wednesday as crude oil prices continued to rise after US President Donald Trump issued fresh threats against Iran hours before his deadline for the embattled country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ended. "A whole civilisation will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will," Trump said in a social media post.

 

Trump added that "maybe something revolutionary will happen" after most of Iran's top leadership has been assassinated in the first five weeks of hostilities, something the president has been touting as a change in regime in Tehran. Over the weekend, he issued threats to attack Iran's power plants and civilian infrastructure if Tehran failed to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 0530 IST Wednesday.

 

The war between Iran and the US-Israel combine is in its sixth week now, with no sign of de-escalation. The US military conducted strikes on military targets on Iran's Kharg Island, the Axios news outlet reported, citing an unidentified senior US official. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Tuesday warned the country's neighbours that its response will be "beyond the region" if the US crosses red lines, according to media reports.

 

Market participants will also keep an eye on the policy decision of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee due Wednesday. With the central bank widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25%, the focus will be on its commentary, growth and inflation projections, and regulatory measures. The rate-setting panel is meeting for the first time since the US-Israel combine attacked Iran, triggering a crisis in West Asia.

 

"In the near term, market direction is likely to remain driven by geopolitical developments and selective value buying, with focus gradually shifting to the earnings season for assessing potential downgrade risks arising from higher crude prices and currency volatility," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note. 

 

Earlier in the day, Motilal Oswal Financial Services trimmed its earnings estimate for Indian companies to account for the impact of higher crude oil and gas prices in March. The brokerage expects the Nifty 50 companies' earnings for the March quarter to rise 6%, compared to the 8% growth it had estimated in January. "The lower growth in 4Q (Jan-Mar) is clearly attributable to the impact of higher crude oil and gas prices flowing through various energy and crude derivative-consuming sectors," the broking firm said in its strategy report.

 

In another development, Morgan Stanley flagged a slowdown in growth and rise in inflation in India because of the war in West Asia and the consequent higher energy prices. The bank lowered its forecast for India's GDP growth for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) by 30 basis points to 6.2%, while CPI inflation is seen rising to 5.1% this year, 110 bps higher than previously projected. Economists at the bank also projected higher WPI inflation and wider current account and fiscal deficits, the report said.

 

Tuesday, the Nifty 50 settled at 23123.65, up 155.40 points or 0.7%. The BSE Sensex ended at 74616.58, up 509.73 points or 0.7%. The 50-stock index managed to close above its important resistance zone at 23000 points Tuesday after four sessions, a break that is expected to help it rise further. Wednesday, technical analysts expect Nifty 50 to find immediate support at 23000-22700 points and face resistance at 23300-23450 points.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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