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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 7, 2026

 

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--Skymet: India 2026 monsoon seen below normal at 94% of long period average 
--CONTEXT: Skymet releases forecast for southwest monsoon 2026 
--Skymet: El Nino is expected to strengthen, impacting monsoon 2nd half 
--Skymet: See above normal rainfall in east, northeast India 
--Skymet: See below normal rainfall in north, west, central India 
--Skymet: See normal rainfall in south peninsular India 
--Skymet: See June rainfall at 101% of long period average 
--Skymet: See July rainfall at 95% of long period average 
--Skymet: See August rainfall at 92% of long period average 
--Skymet: See September rainfall at 89% of long period average 
 

 

MUMBAI – The 2026 southwest monsoon in India is expected to be below normal at 94% of the long period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%, according to the monsoon forecast released by private weather forecasting agency Skymet. Rainfall in June is likely to be stable, before weakening from July to September due to the onset and strengthening of the El Nino, the weather agency said.

 

The agency expects 817 millimetres of rainfall during the upcoming monsoon, which is 90-95% of the long period average — categorised as below normal. The long period average for the season, which spans from June to September, is 868.6 millimetres.

 

"After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral (El Nino-Southern Oscillation). Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Nino is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will keep growing stronger till fall of the year," the forecast quoted Jatin Singh, managaing director of Skymet, as saying. "El Nino return may presage a weaker monsoon. The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic and irregular," he said.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier, hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of the country — central and west India — to record inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to observe below normal rainfall, especially during Aug-Sept. North India is also expected to receive below-normal showers during the season. Rainfall in east and northeast India will be above normal, while in south peninsular India, it will be normal, the weather agency said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to be neutral or delicately positive during the southwest monsoon, resulting in a "decent start of monsoon," the weather agency said. Typically, a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole event during the season has the potential to partially negate the impact of El Nino on the monsoon. "However, the chances of monsoon getting impaired during the second half of season cannot be dismissed. The seasonal rainfall distribution will be at risk of being diverse and biased," the weather agency said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

On a monthly scale, rainfall in June is likely to be 101% of the long period average, with a 70% chance of normal precipitation, the weather agency said. The long period average for June is 165.3 millimetres. For July, it is seen at 95% of the long period average, with a 40% chance of normal showers and a 40% chance of below-normal rainfall, the agency said. The long period average for July is 280.5 millimetres. 

 

Rainfall during August is expected to be 92% of the long period average, with a 60% chance of below-normal showers, the weather agency said. The long period average for August is 254.9 millimetres of rainfall. In September, rainfall is likely to be 89% of the long period average, with a 70% probability of below-normal precipitation. The long period average for September is 167.9 millimetres of rainfall.

 

According to the India Meteorological Department, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with an 82% chance of such conditions persisting from April to June. The latest forecasts suggest a 62% chance of a transition from neutral conditions to El Nino in Jul-Aug, likely persisting till the end of 2026, the weather department said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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