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Informist, Monday, Apr. 6, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices may rise more Tuesday as the short-term trend turned bullish after reports said Pakistan has sent the framework of a plan to the US and Iran calling for a 45-day ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the near-term, the market will remain sensitive to developments in the West Asia conflict and crude oil prices. Market participants will watch out for US President Donald Trump's speech scheduled at 2230 IST Monday for further cues on the West Asia conflict.  

 

Going forward, analysts expect the indices to see continued buying at lower levels as the market is now closer to a bottom than the beginning of a fresh downtrend. "In the last couple of sessions, one thing has become very clear that any dip and every dip has been bought," Akshay Chinchalkar, managing partner and head of market strategy at The Wealth Co., said. "So one of the things we've been seeing is the 21700 to 22000 (points) area is absolutely critical for what happens next."

 

Monday, the Nifty 50 index settled at 22968.25 points, up 255.15 points or 1.1%. The BSE Sensex closed at 74106.85, up 787.30 points or 1.1%.

 

Chinchalkar expects the headline indices to move in a range Tuesday as "nobody wants to take big bets" just ahead of the RBI's monetary policy meeting outcome. The central bank is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25% at the end of the three-day meeting Wednesday. Market participants will watch out for the central bank's commentary on future rate actions. Chinchalkar expects the central bank to recalibrate its policy stance amid the higher crude oil prices and ongoing hostilities in West Asia. "A lot will depend on their guidance, Chinchalkar said, adding that "I think the guidance is going to be not so hawkish.  

 

Despite Monday's rise, the overall risk appetite remains cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and concerns over potential disruptions to global trade, Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.  BofA Securities Monday trimmed its 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) earnings growth estimate for Nifty 50 companies to 8.5% from 11% estimated in early March and 14% estimated before the outbreak of hostilities in West Asia. The broking firm cautioned that if the conflict in West Asia continues, it could trigger a sharp slowdown in demand and investment. In its worst-case scenario for FY27, it expects India's GDP growth to be around 3% and no earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies. 

 

The overall market structure remains mixed in the short term but increasingly constructive on the higher timeframe, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said in a report. On the daily chart, a strong bullish RSI (Relative Strength Index) divergence along with a sharp recovery from the 22200 (points) zone indicates that selling pressure is fading and a base formation is underway. However, a decisive break above the key resistance band of 23100–23400 points would confirm a durable bottom and trigger the next uptrend, the brokerage said. On the downside, 22000–21700 points remain a critical support zone for Nifty 50.  End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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