Informist Poll
Inflation fears may keep gold rangebound with dn bias in Apr
This story was originally published at 23:00 IST on 2 April 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Apr. 2, 2026
By Afra Abubacker
NEW DELHI – Gold prices may struggle to sustain sharp gains in April despite geopolitical risks, as surging oil prices have renewed inflation concerns and reduced expectations of rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Most participants expect gold prices to be volatile this month, but remain rangebound with a downside bias, unless there is a clear de-escalation of the war in West Asia.
As per the median of estimates from seven broking firms polled by Informist, the June gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India are expected to be in a range of INR 139,000-INR 155,000 per 10 grams in April. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $4,100 per ounce to $4,900 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing this report, the June contract was 2.7% down at $4,680.7 per ounce on COMEX.
On Thursday, gold prices snapped a four-day winning streak after US President Donald Trump signalled extreme military action in Iran, raising inflationary concerns over higher crude oil prices. "As long as oil continues to rise, everything else is under pressure. The million-dollar question is when will the oil market fall, and then everything else will go up," Anindiya Banerjee, head of currency and commodity research at Kotak Securities, said.
On Thursday, oil prices rose more than 10% and hit a high of $113.9 a barrel on NYMEX after Trump's statements about intense attacks on Iran raised concerns about prolonged oil supply disruptions. "We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We are going to take them back to the stone ages where they belong," he said in his first public address since the beginning of the war in West Asia on Feb. 28.
This was a reversal of Trump's stand on Wednesday, when he had said Iran had asked for a ceasefire and that he would consider it once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. However, Iran later rejected these claims, calling them illogical and baseless. "There is no meaningful talk between the US and Iran. And markets reacted sharply to conflicting statements on the war situation. That is why we saw panic selling in the market," Manoj Kumar Jain, director at Prithvi Finmart, said.
Geopolitical uncertainties coupled with inflation fears have dimmed the likelihood of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve. According to CME's FedWatch, more than 97% of traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% in its April meeting, and 2.5% expect it to hike the rate by 25 basis points. Typically, higher interest rates dim the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal.
"I believe gold has broadly bottomed near $3,900-$4,000 per ounce," Ravindra Rao, founder, Arthavrksh Financial Services Pvt. Ltd, said. Rao said these levels are only likely to be breached if there is escalation from both US and Iran. "But, I don't know how much strength is left. There has been news of the number of missiles coming down on both sides," he said.
On the upside, Rao does not expect a very sharp rally unless there is a clear de-escalation of war in West Asia. "If that happens, gold could move towards $5,000-$5,200 per ounce. Otherwise, prices may remain capped around $4,800-$4,900", he added.
In addition, the extended war is likely to exert fiscal pressures on US, which may prompt it to liquidate its gold reserves. "If the war settles down soon, then we will see gold prices stabilising and rising again. But if the war does not end, then there is a possibility of countries selling gold to fund their defence expenses and to support economy", Prithvi Finmart's Jain said.
On the domestic bourse, analysts said gold prices on MCX will track the global price movements while remaining tied to rupee volatility. Jain sees the immediate support near INR 142,000 per 10 grams, with downside risk extending toward INR 137,700. On the upside, resistance is placed around INR 155,000, followed by INR 160,000, he added.
Analysts broadly agreed that estimating gold prices directionally at the current juncture is challenging amid unpredictable geopolitical developments. "I think in situations where there is a lot of uncertainty, it is always better to go step by step (on price outlook)," Rao said.
Following are the details of estimates from seven brokerages for gold prices in April, in alphabetical order:
| Brokerage | COMEX support ($/oz) | COMEX resistance ($/oz) | MCX support (INR/10 gm) | MCX resistance (INR/10 gm) |
|
Arthavrksh Financial Services |
3,900 | 4,900 | 135,000 | 158,000 |
| IndusInd Securities | 4,750 | 4,100 | 145,000 | 155,000 |
| Kotak Securities | 3,900 | 4,820 | 145,000 | 155,000 |
| LKP Securities | 4,200 | 4,900 | 139,000 | 155,000 |
| Nirmal Bang | 4,400 | 5,000 | 144,000 | 158,500 |
| SMC Global Securities | 4,100 | 5,000 | 129,595 | 141,000 |
| Ventura Securities | 4,000 | 4,750 | 127,000 | 150,800 |
| Median | 4,100 | 4,900 | 139,000 | 155,000 |
End
US$1 = INR 93.10
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 /+91 (11) 4220-1000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
