More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Apr. 2, 2026

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI - Crude oil prices are expected to remain high in April as there are no signs of de-escalation of the West Asian military conflict. US President Donald Trump's speech on Thursday to extend the war on Iran has increased fears of supply disruptions, as the major routes through which oil passes will remain shut if the war continues. Additionally, production cuts by Gulf nations could contribute to the supply shortage and support prices, analysts said.

 

Trump said the US would hit Iran "extremely hard for the next two to three weeks" and reiterated that the US was close to completing its objective. The US is "very close to finishing the job in Iran," Trump said in an address more than a month after the US and Israel launched targeted attacks on Iran. The threat has raised fears of further damage to the region's energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, the Paris-based International Energy Agency reported that Gulf nations have cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day, or about 10% of world demand.

 

Oil prices have sustained above $90 per barrel due to the disruption of supply from the Strait of Hormuz – a strategic "choke-point" for transport of crude oil – to ships from the US, Israel, Europe and other Western allies, Manoj Jain, director of Prithvi Finmart, said. "Supply of nearly 1 million barrels is affected due to the war," Jain said. The flows through the Strait account for around 20% of the world's oil and LNG supply.

 

According to an Informist poll, the median estimate of seven broking firms puts the April crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India in a range of INR 8,800-INR 10,500 per barrel. The April contract of West Texas Intermediate crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $92.8 and $115 per barrel.

 

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and oil supply disruptions already materialising, the macro shock is no longer just a geopolitical risk premium, but a real energy supply shock, MUFG Bank said in a research report. The situation remains uncertain, with continued military activity and fresh attacks on energy infrastructure, including drone strikes near Kuwait, keeping markets on edge, Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Advisory, said.

 

Prices are likely to remain extremely volatile during this month, Ravinder Sharma, analyst at SMC Global Securities, said. "Prices can move between INR 8,000 and INR 10,500 per barrel on MCX. If INR 10,500 is broken, we can expect a fresh record high of INR 11,200 per barrel," he said. Even in the case of de-escalation, prices are likely to remain around INR 7,000-INR 8,500 per barrel because a lot of energy facilities have been attacked and disrupted in the war, Sharma added.

 

Meanwhile, a cut in output by Russia, the world's second-largest exporter, would add to the strain on global supplies, as oil markets have already been jolted by unprecedented supply disruptions due to the conflict in West Asia. Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia's oil export infrastructure over the last month. In its heaviest drone strikes of the more than four-year war, Ukraine has targeted the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, as it seeks to weaken Russia's economy.

 

At 1708 IST, the most-active May contract of crude oil on the NYMEX was up 9% at $109.07 per barrel. The most-active April contract of crude oil on the MCX was up over 10% at INR 10,220 per barrel.

 

The following are the estimates of brokerages for crude oil prices in April:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support (in $)	NYMEX WTI resistance (in $)
Indusind Securities			100	115
Kedia Advisory	8,680	10,200	92.8	107
Kotak Securities	9,000	10,000	96	120
Nirmal Bang	8,800	10,700	87	125
Prithvi Finmart	8,000	10,000	80	110
SMC Global Securities	8,000	10,500	84.8	123
Ventura Securities	8,890	10,700	95	115
MEDIAN	8,800	10,500	92.8	115

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 93.10

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000 

 

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.