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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 1, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – Analysts are largely divided on the market direction Thursday as they await further signs of de-escalation in the West Asia conflict. While some expect a continuation of Wednesday's rally, others expect the market to remain sensitive to sudden reversals in the evolving geopolitical landscape. Market participants now await Trump's address, scheduled early Thursday, to deliver an "important update" on the Iran war, as per the White House. 

 

Domestic equity indices witnessed a rebound Wednesday, tracking gains across global equity markets on renewed hopes of de-escalation in the West Asia conflict. "The positive signals from the US-Iran front are removing a major overhang of geopolitical risk and potential crude oil volatility, which is rightly cheering the market," Vinit Bolinjkar, head of equity research at Ventura Securities, said in a note. 

 

Wednesday rebound could continue if crude oil stabilises and Strait of Hormuz risks fade, Ajitabh Bharti, co-founder and executive director of CapitalXB, said. "Markets appear to be pricing not just oil but second and third order supply chain shocks, making rallies fragile," he added. If the conflict stretches beyond weeks, the benchmark indices may see "meaningful downside" as earnings and growth estimates gets trimmed. However, a quicker resolution to the conflict could contain the fall, Bharti added. 

 

"The key variable remains the duration (of the conflict)—volatility stays high until oil and shipping normalise. Near-term trading range likely sees Nifty (50) testing 22000-22500 support (levels) if crude stays elevated, with upside capped at 23000 (levels)", Bharti said. 

 

Despite Wednesday's rebound, persistent selling of domestic equities by foreign institutional investors continue to remain a key overhang for Indian markets. In March, they net sold domestic equities worth INR 1.18 trillion, reverting from being net buyers in the previous month, when they net bought shares worth INR 226.15 billion, data from National Securities Depository showed. "For foreigners (investors) to come back to India three things are essential -- more attractive valuations compared with regional peers, a currency that needs to stop falling and a recovery in stock markets," Akshay Chinchalkar, managing partner and head of markets strategy at Wealth Company, said. 

 

On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 settled at 22679.40, up 348 points, or 1.6% from its previous close. Technical analysts expect the index to find support at 22500-22100 and resistance at 22800–23000 points. "Although the broader trend still appears weak and tilted in favour of the bears, the index's (Nifty 50) closeness to key support along with the RSI divergence points to early signs of a potential recovery," Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities said. "On the upside, resistance is placed at 22800 (points), above which the index could move towards 23000(points) and higher. On the downside, a decisive fall below 22200 (points) may revive bearish momentum," he added.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.83

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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