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Informist, Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2026

MUMBAI – Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with an 82% chance of such conditions persisting from April to June, the India Meteorological Department said in its outlook for rainfall and temperature for April and the Apr-Jun hot season. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggest a 62% chance of a transition from neutral conditions to El Nino in Jul-Aug, likely persisting till the end of 2026, the weather department said. 

"Up to June, there will be no El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean. Then, at the end of July, or even at the end of August, there could be the development of El Nino conditions," said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department. "If you look at the different forecasts issued by different weather centers, they say the same thing, that El Nino conditions will develop during southwest monsoon, but whether it will be during end of July, or end of August, that is premature to say, but forecast is there," he added.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

Mohapatra said it is too early to comment on the effect of the El Nino event on the upcoming southwest monsoon. "El Nino is not the only parameter for the forecast of monsoon... the understanding of the monsoon is complex, we cannot go by only one indication," he said. The first estimate for 2026 southwest monsoon will be released mid-April, which would give more insight into the impact of the upcoming El Nino event and the overall outlook for the monsoon, he said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral, the weather department said. Neutral conditions are expected to continue till the second half of the southwest monsoon, after which a transition to positive Indian Ocean Dipole is likely, the department said. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

India last recorded an El Nino event in 2023. The event emerged in the second half of the southwest monsoon, impacting rainfall in August, which recorded only 64% of the long-period average — categorised as below normal rainfall.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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