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By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Bears tightened their grip on the market this month, with Dalal Street recording its worst fall in a month since March 2020, when a countrywide lockdown was announced in view of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a few attempts at recovery, the overall trend remained weak during the month, as headline indices kept falling due to sharp selling by foreign investors. High crude oil prices due to the war between the US and Iran and a sharp fall in the rupee against the dollar hit sentiment during the month.

 

The Nifty 50 index fell over 11% in March to end at 22331.40 points--its lowest closing level in over 11 months. The Sensex ended at 71947.55 points, down 11.5% this month. The Nifty 50 index had fallen more than 11% in a month back in March 2020, when the index had slumped over 23%.

 

There are concerns over the country's economic growth and corporate earnings due to high energy and transport costs as the Strait of Hormuz remains only partially open. Brent crude oil May contracts have risen nearly 60% since the war in West Asia began on Feb. 28.

 

"The Goldilocks macro scenario which India had before the (US-Iran) war has almost disappeared thanks to the war. Instead of high GDP (gross domestic product) growth, low inflation, moderate fiscal and current account deficits and expectations of higher corporate earnings growth in FY27, now we face prospects of lower GDP growth, higher inflation, higher fiscal and current account deficits and lower earnings growth for FY27," V.K. Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments, said in a note.    

 

On the last trading session of the month as well as the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), benchmark equity indices closed around 2% lower each, as crude oil prices continued to rise as the war in West Asia entered the fifth week. Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 4% to an intraday high of INR 116.80 per barrel amid rising concerns about supply disruptions amid Yemeni Houthis launching their first attacks on Israel over the weekend. Additionally, US President Donald Trump is seeking to take control over Iran's oil sector and seize its export hub of Kharg Island, according to reports.  

 

Adding to the negative sentiment, the rupee fell to a record closing low of INR 94.8300 a dollar Monday, erasing its gains from earlier in the day. The domestic currency opened higher against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of India mandated banks Friday to cap their net open dollar-rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market to $100 million by Apr. 10, but it failed to sustain the gains in jittery trade.

 

"Even though the RBI directive will curb excessive speculation in the futures market, this is not sufficient to prevent the weakness in the currency which stems from the rising trade and CAD (current account deficit) triggered by the spike in crude and sustained FPI (foreign portfolio investors) selling in the market," Vijayakumar said. 

 

Dalal Street's fear gauge, the India VIX index, rose over 4% to settle at 27.8875 points, extending gains for the second straight session. Over the month, the index more than doubled from 13.7025 points at the end of February, indicating increased nervousness in the market.

 

All sectoral and broader market indices also felt the heat of the continued risk-off sentiment spurred by the uncertain macro environment and rising crude prices. Mid-cap indices fell around 11?ch in March, on par with their benchmark peers, while small-cap indices lost over 10?ch. Among sectoral indices, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Bank, Nifty Realty, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty Financial Services, and Nifty Auto were the worst hit, falling 16–20% on a monthly basis.  

 

Banking stocks were the biggest drag on the 50-stock index Monday, with the Nifty Bank, Nifty PSU Bank, and Nifty Private Bank falling 3.4-4.6?ch. These stocks fell after the RBI's new rules to limit banks' foreign exchange positions. While the move is seen as structurally positive for currency stability, it may lead to significant unwinding of positions by banks in both the onshore and offshore markets, thus, leading to potential mark-to-market losses, brokerages said. 

 

Shares of Hindalco Industries, National Aluminium Co., and Vedanta rose 1–4%, tracking a sharp rally in global aluminium prices after Iranian strikes damaged key production facilities in the Gulf Region over the weekend, raising fears of supply disruptions. Iran launched attacks on major aluminium smelters in the region, including Emirates Global Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain, causing major operational disruptions at the respective sites, reports said. West Asia accounts for roughly 9-10% of global aluminium output, making it a critical region for supply, reports said. 

 

Among individual stocks, shares of IRB Infrastructure Developers closed nearly 46% lower as the stock traded adjusted for its bonus issue of shares. In February, the company's board had approved a 1-for-1 bonus issue of shares, in which one new equity share of INR 1 will be issued for every existing equity share of the company worth INR 1. Wednesday has been set as the record date for the issue.

 

Central Mine Planning & Design Institute, a subsidiary of state-owned Coal India, saw a weak market debut Monday, with the shares listing at a 7% discount to the issue price on the National Stock Exchange at INR 160. After the weak start, the stock fell further and closed over 10% lower at INR 154.06 per share. In the day, nearly 10 million shares of the company changed hands on the NSE. 

 

* Of the Nifty 50 stocks, 4 rose and 46 fell

* Of the Sensex stocks, 1 rose and 29 fell

* On the NSE, 570 stocks rose, 2,764 fell, and 77 were unchanged

* On the BSE, 876 stocks rose, 3,563 fell, and 154 were unchanged

* Nifty PSU Bank: down 4.6%; Nifty Bank: down 3.8%; Nifty Metal: down 0.2%

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BSE                                                NSE

Sensex: 71947.55, down 1635.67 points or 2.2%      Nifty 50: 22331.40, down 488.20 points or 2.1%

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S&P BSE Sensitive Index	Nifty 50
Lifetime High: 86159.02 (Dec. 1, 2025)	: Lifetime High: 26373.20 (Jan. 5, 2026)
Record Close High: 85836.12 (Sept. 26, 2024)	: Record Close High: 26328.55 (Jan. 2, 2026)
2026 1st day close: 85188.60 (Jan. 1)	: 2026 1st day close: 26146.55 (Jan. 1)
2026 Closing High: 85762.01 (Jan. 2)	: 2026 Closing High: 26328.55 (Jan. 2)
2026 Closing Low: 71947.55 (Mar. 30)	: 2026 Closing Low: 22331.40 (Mar. 30)
2026 High (intraday): 85883.50 (Jan. 5)	: 2026 High (intraday): 26373.20 (Jan. 5)
2026 Low (intraday): 71774.13(Mar. 30)	: 2026 Low (intraday): 22283.85 (Mar. 30)
2025 1st day close: 78507.41 (Jan. 1)	: 2025 1st day close: 23742.90 (Jan. 1)
2025 Closing High: 85720.38 (Nov. 27)	: 2025 Closing High: 26215.55 (Nov. 27)
2025 Closing Low: 72989.93 (Mar. 4)	: 2025 Closing Low: 22082.65 (Mar. 4)
2025 High (intraday): 86159.02 (Dec. 1)	: 2025 High (intraday): 26325.80 (Dec.1)
2025 Low (intraday): 71425.01 (Apr. 7)	: 2025 Low (intraday): 21743.65 (Apr. 7)
2024 1st day close: 72271.94 (Jan. 1)	: 2024 1st day close: 21741.90 (Jan. 1)
2024 Closing High: 85836.12 (Sept. 26)	: 2024 Closing High: 26216.05 (Sept. 26)
2024 Closing Low: 70370.55 (Jan. 23)	: 2024 Closing Low: 21238.80 (Jan. 23)
2024 High (intraday): 85978.25 (Sep. 27)	: 2024 High (intraday): 26277.35 (Sept. 27)
2024 Low (intraday): 70001.60 (Jan. 24)	: 2024 Low (intraday): 21137.20 (Jan. 24)
2023 1st day close: 61167.79 (Jan. 2)	: 2023 1st day close: 18197.45 (Jan. 2)
2023 Closing High: 72410.38 (Dec. 28)	: 2023 Closing High: 21778.70 (Dec. 28)
2023 Closing Low: 59288.35 (Feb. 27)	: 2023 Closing Low: 17311.80 (Oct. 17)
2023 High (intraday): 72484.34 (Dec. 28)	: 2023 High (intraday): 21801.45 (Dec. 28)
2023 Low (intraday): 58699.20 (Jan. 30)	: 2023 Low (intraday): 17098.55 (Jan. 17)
2022 1st day close: 59183.22 (Jan. 3)	: 2022 1st day close: 17625.70 (Jan. 3)
2022 Closing High: 63284.19 (Dec. 1)	: 2022 Closing High: 18812.50 (Dec. 1)
2022 Closing Low: 51360.42 (Jun. 17)	: 2022 Closing Low: 15293.50 (Jun. 17)
2022 High (intraday): 63583.07 (Dec. 1)	: 2022 High (intraday): 18887.60 (Dec. 1)
2022 Low (intraday): 50921.22 (Jun. 17)	: 2022 Low (intraday): 15183.40 (Jun. 17)
2021 Closing High: 61305.95 (Oct. 14)	: 2021 Closing High: 18338.55 (Oct. 14)
2021 Closing Low: 46285.77 (Jan. 29)	: 2021 Closing Low: 13634.60 (Jan. 29)
2021 High (intraday): 61353.25 (Oct. 14)	: 2021 High (intraday): 18350.75 (Oct. 14)
2021 Low (intraday): 46160.46 (Jan. 29)	: 2021 Low (intraday): 13596.75 (Jan. 29)
2020 Closing High: 47751.33 (Dec. 31)	: 2020 Closing High: 13981.95 (Dec. 30)
2020 Closing Low: 25981.24 (Mar. 23)	: 2020 Closing Low: 7610.25 (Mar. 23)
2020 High (intraday): 47896.97 (Dec. 31)	: 2020 High (intraday): 14024.85 (Dec. 31)
2020 Low (intraday): 25638.90 (Mar. 24)	: 2020 Low (intraday): 7511.10 (Mar. 24)
2019 High (intraday): 41809.96 (Dec. 20)	: 2019 High (intraday): 12293.90 (Dec. 20)
2019 Low (intraday): 35287.16 (Feb. 19)	: 2019 Low (intraday): 10583.65 (Jan. 29)
2018 High (intraday): 38938.91(Aug. 28))	: 2018 High(intraday): 11760.20 (Aug. 28)
2018 Low (intraday): 32483.8 (Mar. 23)	: 2018 Low (intraday): 9951.9 (Mar. 23)
2017 High (intraday): 34005.37 (Dec. 26)	: 2017 High(intraday): 10515.10 (Dec. 26)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 94.8300

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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