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Informist, Monday, Mar. 30, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – Automobile companies are expected to close the current financial year on a strong note as their despatches in March are expected to grow in double digits on year across segments, according to analysts. "Demand remains healthy, aided by festive tailwinds, year-end buying, strong rural cash flows, and better financing availability," Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said in a report Monday. "At the same time, inventory levels have largely normalised, indicating improved wholesale-retail alignment."

 

Nomura Research estimates despatches of two-wheelers in March to increase by 18% on year, passenger vehicles by 10% on year, medium-heavy commercial vehicles by 12% on year, and tractors by 11% on year. 

 

Wholesale sales of two-wheelers are expected to increase in March primarily because of resilient demand in urban areas, availability of financing, and improved inventory alignment, which is expected to be offset by mixed rural sentiment, Nirmal Bang said. Major two-wheeler companies have also relied on exports to boost their sales performance in recent years. "Exports are likely to maintain strong double-digit growth, driven by continued recovery in key emerging markets and distributor restocking, although some moderation on a sequential basis may be seen after a strong February," the broking firm said.

 

Nirmal Bang expects Bajaj Auto Ltd. to have sold 375,000 units in March, up 19% on year. Nomura has pegged the Chetak-maker's March despatches much higher at 468,000 units, which would translate to a 26% year-on-year growth.

 

TVS Motor Co. Ltd. had sold 414,700 units last March. Nomura and Nirmal Bang have forecast an on-year growth of 28% and 27%, respectively. Hero MotoCorp. Ltd.'s March despatches are expected to rise 9% on year to 600,000 units, Nomura said. "While the deadline of January 2026 for the ABS (anti-lock braking system) regulation has been pushed (back), HMCL's exposure to the regulation remains a key risk to monitor, in our view, since it has the largest exposure to the 2W <125cc>

 

PASSENGER VEHICLES

Wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in March are being supported by demand in urban areas, continued momentum from recent launches, and an improvement in the supply chain. Despatches in March by India's largest passenger vehicle maker, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., are expected by Nomura to rise almost 9% on year and by Nirmal Bang by just over 15%.

 

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. likely sold 101,500 automobiles in March, up 21% on year, Nomura said. "The new SUVs (sport utility vehicles) from MM (Mahindra & Mahindra) continue to garner strong response from the customers, which is reflected in the waiting period," the brokerage said.

 

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd.'s despatches in March may grow 25% on year to around 65,000 units, Nomura said. Nirmal Bang's forecast is slightly lower at 63,400 units, reflecting a potential 22% on-year growth.

 

Analysts have provided mixed estimates for Hyundai Motor India Ltd. While Nomura expects poor performance in the export market to cause 5% contraction in despatches, Nirmal Bang has pencilled in a 12% year-on-year growth from 67,300 units sold in March last year.

 

The commercial vehicle segment is expected to register robust growth in March due to steady freight activity, improving execution of infrastructure projects, financing availability, and traction in replacement demand. "Growth is aided by healthy YoY momentum and sustained strength on a sequential basis, with February volumes also remaining robust across segments. Exports are likely to remain supportive, driven by recovery in key overseas markets, albeit with some volatility," Nirmal Bang said.

 

The tractor segment, too, is likely to post strong sales growth for March due to resilient demand in rural areas, favourable crop conditions, steady farm incomes, and government support, which is helping purchasing activity. "Demand indicators remain positive, but we will need to monitor El Nino risk in 2026 as weaker monsoon rainfall can affect demand (going forward)," Nomura said.

 

Worries stemming from the continuing military conflict in West Asia, potentially disturbing the sales growth momentum that was spurred by a cut in goods and services tax may not fructify in March, Nomura said. Between September and March, automobile companies have faced steep increases in commodity prices but took price hikes only in the March quarter.

 

"...further price hikes may be required to maintain margins. This could impact entry-segment demand. We would monitor the demand impact over the next two months as OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) will likely raise vehicle prices in April (0.5-1.5%) and fuel prices could increase in May after state elections," the brokerage said.

 

Following are the estimates for wholesale automobile despatches by companies in March:

Company	Nirmal Bang	YoY (%)	Nomura Research	YoY (%)
Ashok Leyland	21,000	23.3	26,500	10.1
Bajaj Auto	375,000	18.8	468,000	26.5
Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield)	124,000	22.7	112,000	10.9
Eicher Motors (VECV)	14,300	18.2	13,300	9.6
Hero MotoCorp	673,000	22.5	600,000	9.2
Hyundai Motor	75,700	12.4	64,000	(-)4.9
M&M (Auto)	-	-	101,500	21.0
M&M (Tractor)	42,700	22.2	37,000	5.9
Maruti Suzuki	220,000	15.4	209,500	8.6
Tata Motors (CV)	35,100	23.8	46,000	11.9
Tata Motors PV	63,400	22.2	64,800	24.8
TVS Motor	508,000	27.0	530,500	27.9

 

End

 

Reported by Anand JC

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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