Informist Poll
India IIP growth seen moderating to 4-month low of 4% in February
This story was originally published at 21:52 IST on 27 March 2026
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By Shweta
NEW DELHI – Growth in India's industrial production is likely to moderate further to a four-month low of 4.0% in February from 4.8% in January, according to an Informist Poll of 12 economists. Industrial output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, had grown 2.7% in February 2025.
Economists' estimates for IIP growth in February range from 3.4% to 5.6%. The statistics ministry will release IIP data for February at 1600 IST Monday.
Growth in industrial production is seen moderating in February mainly due to sluggish production in the mining and electricity sectors, taking cues from output of eight core industries in February, economists said.
The growth in output of India's eight core industries, which account for over 40% of the total weight of IIP, slowed down to 2.3% in February from 4.7% in January.
Fewer number of working days is also likely to weigh on industrial production compared to January, as is generally the case in February. At 4.0% on-year growth in February, the general index would fall over 7% from January, which would be the steepest decline in 10 months. The general index had fallen 6.5% on month in February 2025.
"On the manufacturing front, a slowdown in high-frequency indicators like e-way bills, diesel consumption, export growth suggest a likely moderation in output in February," Sakshi Gupta, principal economist at HDFC Bank, said.
The number of e-way bills generated grew nearly 19% on year in February, higher than an almost 16% on-year rise in January, according to data from the Goods and Services Tax Network. Sequentially, however, the number of e-way bills generated fell 3% from January.
The overall IIP growth will continue "to be driven mainly by infrastructure-related sectors — cement and steel...with support from electricity production waning in recent months and energy industries still broadly contracting outright," Miguel Chanco, chief emerging Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
Other high-frequency indicators showed a pick-up in economic activity in February from a year ago. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a four-month high of 56.9, denoting expansion in activity, in February.
Domestic vehicle production rose 22% on year in February, higher than the 15% on-year rise in January, data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers showed. This growth was supported by a low base, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said in a report. "GST (goods and services tax) cuts continue to support auto demand," the report said.
Following is the summary of the poll on IIP growth in February:
| ORGANISATION | IIP GROWTH ESTIMATE |
| STCI Primary Dealer | 3.4% |
| HDFC Bank | 3.5% |
| DBS Bank | 3.8% |
| Moody's Analytics | 3.9% |
| Nirmal Bang Equities | 4.0% |
| ANZ Banking Group | 4.0% |
| ICRA | 4.0% |
| ICICI Bank | 4.2% |
| Motilal Oswal Financial Services | 5.0% |
| QuantEco Research | 5.4% |
| India Ratings and Research | 5.5% |
| Pantheon Macroeconomics | 5.6% |
End
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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