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Informist, Friday, Mar. 27, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Commerzbank has raised its price forecast for gold by the end of this calendar year as it believes the current pullback is not sustainable. The German bank has also raised its price forecast for aluminum due to loss of supply from the Gulf. However, it has lowered its price forecast for silver due to economic uncertainties stemming from rising energy prices.

 

The German bank now sees gold prices at $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026, higher than its earlier projection of $4,900 per ounce. By the end of 2027, it sees gold prices at $5,200 per ounce, also higher from its previous forecast of $4,800 per ounce. "We therefore clearly do not believe that the recent, quite significant pullback is sustainable. For one thing, in our base case scenario, we assume that the war in Iran will end in the spring," Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodity research at Commerzbank, said in a report.

 

This will likely lead to a correction in the "recently quite extreme" expectations of interest rate hikes in the US. Nguyen said they even expect the US Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle at the end of this year and to lower its benchmark rate by a total of 75 basis points by the middle of 2027. "At the same time, US inflation is likely to settle at levels above the inflation target in the coming year. In short: US real interest rates are likely to fall over the longer term, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold," Nguyen said.

 

Commerzbank also does not see gold's safe-haven status as being at risk. "Nevertheless, it cannot be denied that gold is currently failing to offset losses, particularly in the stock market — a characteristic that is typically essential for a safe haven. However, this is primarily due to the nature of the crisis and is not specific to gold; it also applies to other typical safe havens," Nguyen said.

 

Commerzbank has revised downward its silver price forecast to $80 per ounce by mid-2026 and to $90 per ounce by the end of 2026. In addition to the factors that have weighed on gold, silver prices have been pressured by its higher industrial usage. "As a result, they are negatively impacted by the economic uncertainty stemming from rising energy prices and the resulting expectations of rising interest rates," Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said in the report.

 

The German bank now expects aluminium prices at $3,400 per tonne this year on the London Metal Exchange, up $100 from its previous forecast. "Aluminum is caught between supply and demand concerns," Volkmar Baur, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank, said. West Asia produces around 8% of global aluminium and accounts for around 14% of global exports. Since the conflict began, two major producers have already cut production, reducing global supply. "Furthermore, aluminum production is highly energy-intensive, meaning that sharply rising energy prices are also weighing on production outside the Gulf region," Baur said. These circumstances led to a significant rise in aluminium prices at the start of the conflict.

 

However, prices have fallen recently due to concerns around global economic growth, which may hurt demand. The global aluminium market should be in a deficit this year due to the already implemented production cuts, and this will be difficult to make up even after the conflict ends, Baur said.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.81

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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