More Stories

Informist, Friday, Mar. 27, 2026

 

--Skymet Palawat: Upcoming El Nino to lead to below-normal rains Aug-Sept

--CONTEXT:Skymet's vice-president of Met dept Mahesh Palawat in an interview

--Skymet Palawat: Upcoming El Nino to be more severe than that in 2023

--Skymet Palawat: No positive Indian Ocean Dipole seen curbing 2026 El Nino

--Skymet Palawat: Upcoming El Nino to impact kharif, rabi crops across India

 

By Shreya Shetty and Abhijit Doshi

 

MUMBAI – Global weather bureaus and meteorological experts have forecast the emergence of the El Nino weather phenomenon soon, although they differ on the precise timing of its onset. Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet, believes the El Nino is expected to evolve during the second half of the southwest monsoon, impacting the most rain-heavy months of the season – August and September – and affecting both kharif and rabi crops. The impact of the El Nino is expected to be more severe than the last one, which was in 2023, due to the absence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole this time around, Palawat told Informist in an interview.

 

Currently, the La Nina event has already transitioned into neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, Palawat said. All international climate models indicate a shift to El Nino from neutral conditions by mid-2026, though there are variations in the timing of the transition — some models suggest an El Nino development as early as May, while others see the onset only in late winter. Palawat believes a transition from neutral conditions to an El Nino event is likely in Jun-Jul, after which the event will evolve in Aug-Sept.

 

An evolving El Nino is the active development phase of the warming phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle, when trade winds weaken, causing warm surface water to shift from the western Pacific Ocean toward the east.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

EL NINO IN 2023

"In 2023, there were similar weather conditions – June and July were better, but in August there were almost drought-like conditions. But due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the September rainfall bounced back, which saved the monsoon of 2023," Palawat said.

 

An El Nino event last occurred in 2023, and remained active till the first few months of 2024. The onset was declared in July 2023, and its withdrawal in March 2024. Its impact was felt in India before it had evolved, with a hotter summer being a prelude to the event.

 

The first half of the southwest monsoon in 2023 was relatively unaffected, with both June and July recording normal rainfall. Rainfall in August was hit hard due to the evolving El Nino, recording only 64% of the long period average – which is categorised as below normal rainfall, according to the terminology of India Meteorological Department.

 

However, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerged in the second half of the 2023 monsoon, which negated much of the negative impact of the El Nino event. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

"But this year, we do not foresee that the Indian Ocean Dipole will be very positive. So, the chances of below-normal rainfall are there in August and September – this year El Nino impact will be more severe than (in 2023)," Palawat said.

 

SUMMER & SUMMER CROP SEASON

India has started feeling the effects of the upcoming El Nino event already, according to Palawat. "Whenever there is El Nino, the surface temperature usually warms up. The first 13 days of March were very hot. The heat wave was well before time over many parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and parts of Hyderabad, temperatures reached up to 42 degrees (Celsius)," he said.

 

The country also witnessed pre-monsoon showers earlier than usual in the second half of March, Palawat said. While these showers are likely to keep temperatures in check till the end of March, heatwaves are expected to make a comeback in April and May. Though pre-monsoon activities are also likely to continue amid rising temperatures, these will not be very intense in May, he said.

 

The standing rabi crop has already been affected by the earlier-than-usual rise in temperatures and pre-monsoon activities in March, Palawat said. The impact of heatwaves will also be felt on summer crops, he said.

 

The summer crop season, or the zaid season, falls between the rabi and kharif seasons – around February or March to June, depending on the state. Among the major crops grown during the season are paddy, urad, moong, and groundnut.

 

SOUTHWEST MONSOON & KHARIF

"June will be better than normal, and July may be at par. But as we progress further into the monsoon, El Nino impact will be there," Palawat said. "The impact of El Nino will be negligible in June. So, normal progression of monsoon (onset) will be there," he said.

 

The normal date for the onset of the southwest monsoon is Jun. 1, and it covers the entire country by Jul. 8.

 

"First half of monsoon seems to be normal because during that time, there will be a transition period from neutral to El Nino conditions," Palawat said. The El Nino is likely to evolve during August and September, he said. "Historically, we have seen that evolving El Nino is much more dangerous than El Nino which is already there," he added.

 

As such, the overall rainfall in August and September 2026 could be less than in 2023, Palawat said. "The rainfall deficiency will be distributed between August and September this year," he said.

 

With a normal onset of the monsoon, sowing of kharif crops is unlikely to be delayed, Palawat said. "But rain-dependent areas like parts of Rajasthan rely on rainfall as their main irrigation. So, if August (rainfall) fails, then there will be a negative impact on the crops."

 

The kharif season spans from June to September. Crops are usually sown during the advent of the southwest monsoon season, and harvested at the end of the monsoon season. Most crops sown during the season are heavily rain-dependent, including paddy, tur, and groundnut.

 

In 2023, India recorded 820 millimetres of rainfall during the southwest monsoon, 94.4% of the long period average – falling under the 'normal' category, according to the Indian weather department.

 

Production of food grain crops such as cereals and pulses saw a negligible rise in 2023-24 (Jul-Jun) at 155.77 million tonnes against 155.71 million tonnes in 2022-23. The output of kharif oilseeds in 2023-24 fell to 24.16 million tonnes from 26.15 million tonnes the previous year.

 

WINTER & RABI

Though it is premature to say how long the El Nino event will continue, it is likely to impact the winter in 2026 as well, Palawat said. An El Nino event typically lasts eight-nine months, he said.

 

"In the winter also, I think that El Nino will continue. The temperature will be warmer than normal. Then, by the winter or spring of 2027, I think that it may start tapering down," he added.

 

With below-normal rainfall predicted in the second half of the southwest monsoon, the rabi crop season is expected to be adversely impacted as well, Palawat said. "...soil moisture should be there, the reservoirs should also be full. If there is some distress in August and September, then naturally, sufficient water will not be there, and the soil moisture will also get affected," he said.

 

In the rabi season, most crops are sown in Oct-Nov and harvested in Feb-Apr. The crops are grown either with rainwater percolating into the ground, or using irrigation. Some of the major rabi crops are wheat, chana, and mustard.

 

The northeast monsoon, which spans from October to December, was 8.5?low normal in 2023, according to the Indian weather department. Despite the respite of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in September 2023, the El Nino event that year left water levels in reservoirs across the country below the 10-year average level. Rabi acreage in 2023-24 was also below the five-year average level.

 

In the 2034-24 rabi season, the output of food grains rose over 1% to 160.01 million tonnes, and that of oilseeds was up nearly 1% at 14.28 million tonnes.

 

MORE EL NINO EVENTS AHEAD

"Due to climate change and global warming, we are seeing that the event of El Nino is increasing and La Nina is decreasing," Palawat said.

 

Global greenhouse gas emissions continued to increase last year, marking 2025 the second- or third-hottest year on record, and about 1.43 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Concentration of heat-trapping greenhouse gases released due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels reached their highest level in at least 800,000 years, the organisation said in its State of Climate report for 2025. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

 

This heightened concentration of greenhouse gas has thrown the Earth's climate out of balance more than ever before, resulting in extreme weather events across the globe, the organisation said. These rapid and large-scale climate changes, which have only occurred within a few decades, will have harmful repercussions for hundreds, and potentially thousands, of years, it said.

 

"In the future, we think that the event of El Nino will be on the rise because of a rise in greenhouse gases, which are increasing global temperatures," Palawat said. "And that's why the sea surface temperature will also get affected. So, warming will be more, cooling will be less."  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.