India Stocks Outlook
Seen range bound next week, bias remains negative
This story was originally published at 19:24 IST on 20 March 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Mar. 20, 2026
By Arya S. Biju
MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to move in a range next week, with the broader sentiment remaining negative amid the uncertain geopolitical environment, according to analysts. While there are expectations of a gradual recovery in the indices after their recent sharp fall, upside is likely to be constrained as the geopolitical tensions in West Asia continue to put pressure on global energy prices. On the downside, some analysts also expect the indices to not see a sharp fall as most of the damage is said to be already done.
"I believe we are in the last leg of pain and market should see sustained recovery. There could be volatility based on the attack in West Asia. There could be one or two small shocks, but not like yesterday (Thursday's) 3% (fall) or that is most unlikely," said G. Chokkalingam, founder and head of research at Equinomics Research. He expects crude oil prices to go back to the $70–$80 per barrel level once the war concludes and expects the indices to see a sharp rebound.
Crude oil prices eased slightly in the early trade Friday after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington might soon lift sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. Sentiment was also lifted by US President Donald Trump saying he would not "put troops anywhere" when asked about moving forces towards Iran and on Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Iran no longer has the capability to enrich uranium or produce ballistic missiles, adding that the war could end sooner than many expect. However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied Netanyahu's comment on its capability to produce ballistic missiles.
Israel continued to carry out air strikes in Tehran Friday, a day after it pledged to refrain from striking a key Iranian gas field. In retaliation, Iran attacked Kuwait's largest oil refinery, Mina Al-Ahmadi. Further, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson General Ali Mohammad Naini is said to be killed in what Israel says was an overnight air attack, AlJazeera reported.
Later in the day, Iran's armed forces warned that they will target the country's enemies including officials, pilots, and soldiers in amusement parks, resorts, and tourist centres, saying "No place in the world will be safe for you." The assassination of Iran's top commanders "is the result of the enemy's desperation, helplessness, and malice," the Wall Street Journal reported citing senior spokesman, Brigadier General Abolfazl Shekarchi.
Further adding to the negative sentiment, Saudi Arabia's oil officials projected that oil prices could exceed $180 a barrel by late April if the US-Iran war continues, raising concern about long-term demand destruction or recession, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Further, the sentiment continues to be weighed down by persistent foreign investor selling. They have net sold domestic equities worth around INR 882 billion so far in March, according to data on the National Securities Depository website.
On Friday, markets recovered after the previous session's sharp decline. The Nifty 50 closed at 23114.50 points, up 112.35 points or 0.5%. The BSE Sensex settled at 74532.96 points, up 325.72 points or 0.4%. "However, the recovery was limited by continued weakness in the Indian rupee," Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said in a note. "Elevated crude oil prices, holding above $100 per barrel, continued to raise concerns around inflation and India's trade deficit, while geopolitical tensions in West Asia added to the uncertainty. Despite a positive start, the underlying tone remained fragile, with macro headwinds continuing to influence market direction," Khemka added. Next week, technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 to find support at 23000–22900 points and resistance at 23500-23800 points. End
US$1 = INR 93.71
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
