Oil Stocks Outlook
Seen falling amid surging crude prices on West Asia war
This story was originally published at 18:57 IST on 20 March 2026
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MUMBAI – Shares of companies in the oil and gas sector are expected to trade lower next week amid escalating military action in West Asia which is leading to a surge in crude oil prices. The conflict led to the closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, creating concern about crude oil supply and pushing the prices above $110 per barrel.
On Friday, the Nifty Oil & Gas ended 0.6% higher at 11034.95 points. Support for the index is expected at 10900 points and resistance at 11300 points, said Jatin Gedia, vice president, technical research at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies. The index Friday mirrored the gains in its benchmark peer, Nifty 50, which ended 0.5% higher.
In the current scenario, oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. are hit the most. With crude oil prices around $100 per barrel, the earnings of these companies could drop 90–190% unless there is a hike in retail prices, tax cut by government or higher retail volumes relative to their refining capacity, Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. said in a report. "IOCL (Indian Oil Corp.) is better placed among OMCs due to higher refining share, but still vulnerable if crude stayed high and retail price unchanged," the report said.
The oil marketers have decided to raise the price of premium petrol by INR 2.0-INR 2.3 per litre, effective immediately, CNBC-Awaaz reported Friday. Petrol pump owners received information about the same Thursday evening, and the new rates were implemented Friday morning, according to the report.
Even if there is a resolution to the US-Israel war on Iran soon, the recovery of crude oil prices will likely be slow and may not be complete due to large damage to infrastructure, according to Kotak Securities. "Geopolitical worries and risk premiums will likely remain elevated. A prolonged conflict could keep oil prices elevated for several months, if not more," the brokerage said.
Friday, the May Futures of Brent Crude rose to a high of $111.22 per barrel, up over 2% from the previous close. Media reports said an Iranian missile hit Israel's Haifa refinery and damaged key electrical infrastructure. At 1819 IST, the May Futures of Brent Crude Oil were at $106.65 per barrel, down over 2% from the previous close.
TOP HEADLINES
* PRESS: Indian oil cos hike premium petrol prices by INR 2-INR 2.3 per litre
* Oil companies' ethanol blending at 20% in Feb, maintain 20% in Nov-Feb
* Trump says US, Qatar knew nothing of Israel's strike on South Pars gas field
* Petronet LNG appoints Deepak Gupta as nominee of GAIL on board of directors
* Brent crude surges to $109/bbl after US-Israel strikes hit Iranian gas field
* Centre to give 10% more commercial LPG to states if they aid shift to PNG
* Govt restores commercial LPG sale partially; focus still on households
* Govt asks PNG users to give up LPG, bars them from new connections, refills
* Govt starts commercial LPG cylinder supply, says no dry-out at retail outlets
* PM inaugurates Oil India's augmented Numaligarh-Siliguri product pipeline
Following are the resistance and support levels for key oil stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % | Resistance | Support |
| Bharat Petroleum Corp | 287.80 | (-)9.90 | 299.10 | 281.30 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corp | 336.30 | (-)8.80 | 352.50 | 321.90 |
| Indian Oil Corp | 144.60 | (-)7.60 | 150.00 | 140.90 |
| Oil & Natural Gas Corp | 265.40 | 0.50 | 276.50 | 258.40 |
| Oil India | 475.50 | 1.10 | 491.70 | 463.90 |
| Reliance Industries | 1414.40 | 2.40 | 1447.40 | 1379.60 |
| Index | Levels | |||
| NIFTY OIL & GAS | 11034.95 | (-)2.20 | 11270.00 | 10896.20 |
| Nifty 50 | 23114.50 | (-)0.20 | 23453.30 | 22898.20 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 74532.96 | (-)0.00 | 75636.10 | 73833.40 |
End
US$1 = INR 93.71
Reported by Adhithya Aji
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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