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EquityWireFOMC Decision: US FOMC holds rates steady, sees one cut in 2026 as Iran war impact uncertain
FOMC Decision

US FOMC holds rates steady, sees one cut in 2026 as Iran war impact uncertain

This story was originally published at 00:18 IST on 19 March 2026
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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 19, 2026

 

Please click here to read all liners published on this story
--US FOMC keeps federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%
--US FOMC: Implications of developments in W Asia uncertain for US economy
--US FOMC: Economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace
--US FOMC: Job gains have remained low, inflation remains somewhat elevated
--US FOMC: Uncertainty about economic outlook remains elevated
--Median of US Fed officials' views shows 25 bps rate cuts in 2026
 

 

NEW DELHI – The US Federal Open Market Committee Wednesday left the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, as was widely expected, and sees one rate cut in the rest of 2026. The Committee said the implications of the US-Israel war on Iran for the US economy are uncertain.

 

This is the second consecutive meeting when the US rate-setting panel has held interest rates steady at 3.50-3.75%. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the decision, and instead preferred to lower interest rates by 25 basis points.

 

The summary of economic projections released along with the rate decision showed only one 25-bps rate reduction in the policy rate in 2026 as per the median of expectations of Fed officials, after 100 bps of easing in 2024 and 75 bps in 2025.

 

Seven of the 19 Fed officials see the policy rate staying at the current level of 3.50-3.75% throughout 2026, while the rest see one or more rate cuts. Seven committee members see a 25-bps rate cut in 2026 and another two project 50-bps of cuts. Two officials see the target range at 2.75-3.00% and one sees it 100 bps lower than current levels.

 

"Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace," the FOMC statement said. "Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated." 

 

The Fed now expects inflation to be higher than seen in the December meeting. Inflation, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index, is now seen ending 2026 at 2.7%, up from 2.4% projected in December. The median forecast for core personal-consumption expenditures inflation was raised to 2.7% from 2.5%.

 

The higher inflation projections likely reflect the impact of the surge in global energy prices after the US-Israel attack on Iran and the subsequent retaliation. Brent crude oil futures for May delivery traded around $107 a barrel, much higher than the December meeting of the FOMC.

 

The median GDP growth forecast was raised to 2.4% from 2.3?rlier, while the projection for unemployment rate was kept steady at 4.4%.

 

"In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook," the statement said. "The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals."  End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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