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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2026

 

By Arundathi A R

 

MUMBAI – The headline equity indices are likely to rise a little Thursday but analysts see the near-term trend remaining negative until the Nifty 50 index gets past the 24000-point mark. The continuing geopolitical headwinds, high crude oil prices, and depreciation of the rupee are the major factors on which the market trend will hinge, they said.

 

Analysts do not expect the Nifty 50 to rebound to the pre-hostilities level immediately, when it was above 25000 points, forget getting close to its record high of 26373.20 points. "Long-term value persists, however, near-term upside remains constrained due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, elevated crude prices, and continued rupee depreciation," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.

 

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended at 23777.80 points, up 196.65 points or 0.8%. The BSE Sensex closed at 76704.13, up 633.29 points or 0.8%. The benchmark indices closed higher for the third straight session. Analysts expect the momentum to be sustained in the coming sessions after the sharp sell-off that was triggered by the outbreak of hostilities in West Asia on Feb. 28.

 

"As long as the war continues, crude oil prices will remain at the current higher levels," Rohit Srivastava, founder of Indiacharts, said. At 1604 IST, the Brent Crude May futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was marginally higher at $103.5 per barrel. Crude oil prices have remained above the $100 per-barrel mark for the fifth session in a row. Kotak Institutional Equities suggested that oil marketing companies, with no retail pricing freedom, will have to absorb the higher crude oil, freight, and insurance costs.

 

The brokerage raised its oil price assumption for the financial year 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) to $85 per barrel and for FY28 and long-term estimates to $75 per barrel. It expects a prolonged conflict in West Asia to keep oil prices high for several months.

 

The Indian rupee plunged to a record closing low of 92.63 against the dollar Wednesday as pressure from a rising import bill continues to weigh on the currency. "The macro (economic) backdrop remains unfavourable, with crude (oil) likely to stay elevated for a prolonged period, keeping the rupee under pressure," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst of commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note.

 

"Information technology stocks are expected to go through some time-wise correction and the overall trend is likely to be negative," Ruchit Jain, head of technical research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said. Due to a sharp sell-off, the momentum readings of IT stocks were in the oversold zone, which resulted in a technical pullback for the stocks Wednesday, he said.

 

However, global brokerage CLSA has a positive stance on IT stocks because of the easing of artificial intelligence-led pricing pressure, according to a report by NDTV Profit. The brokerage also highlighted that the deal pipelines of IT majors remain strong, supporting medium-term revenue visibility.

 

At the global level, direct exposure of most IT stocks to West Asia is below 5%, CLSA said. "This limits immediate earnings risk, although prolonged tensions could indirectly impact global tech spending cycles," NDTV Profit reported, quoting the brokerage.

 

Apart from tracking developments pertaining to the conflict in West Asia, investors will also watch out for policy decisions from major central banks, especially from the US Federal Reserve, later in the day. The European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan will announce their own policy decisions Thursday.  End

 

US$1 = INR 92.63

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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