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Informist, Monday, Mar. 16, 2026

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – Traders covered short positions in futures contracts of the Nifty 50 Monday, helping the benchmark index to recover fully from its intraday low and close higher, three analysts said. Traders started buying when the headline index hit 22955.25, its lowest intraday level in 11 months. However, some derivatives and technical analysts earlier in the day had said the index was likely to bounce back. Some broking firms have cut their year-end targets for the index owing to the continued military conflict in West Asia. Overall market sentiment continues to be negative.

 

"Volatility is also expected to remain elevated due to uncertain global cues, rising crude oil prices, and increasing geopolitical tensions, which will keep traders cautious in the near term," Bajaj Broking said in a note. "Overall bias continues to remain down with immediate resistance placed at 23,700-23,800 levels... on the downside, key support levels are placed in the 22,700–22,400..."

 

Monday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23408.80 points, up 257.70 points or 1.1%. The benchmark index snapped a three-day fall during which it slid nearly 5%. The Nifty 50 is down more than 11% from its record high, signifying the scale of the sell-off following the outbreak of hostilities in West Asia. Market participants are worried about crude oil prices remaining between $90 and $100 per barrel for a long duration and the consequences of this on the global economy.

 

Citi has cut the Nifty 50 index's year-end target by 1500 points to 27000 points, besides downgrading the automotive sector to "neutral" because of risks from an increase in oil and gas prices. The broking firm also predicts a 50–75 basis-point rise in average India inflation in the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) if crude oil prices remain at the current levels for around three months.

 

Nomura cut its year-end target for the Nifty 50 to 24900 points from 29300 points, Reuters reported. The present target implies an upside of over 6% from the current level. A further fall of 5% is a "distinct possibility" in the near term, Nomura said, as per the report, with small- and mid-cap stocks at higher risk as there are no signs of de-escalation at the moment.

 

Traders wrote out-of-the-money call contracts at 24000, 23700, and 23500 strikes, implying some selling pressure at those levels. The highest addition and concentration of open interest was at the 24000 call. Traders also bought some contracts expiring next week at 23500, 23400, and 23300 strikes.

 

The options chain also showed that traders wrote put contracts across the board. They sold puts at 23300, 23000, and 22900 strike prices, indicating that the index may remain around these levels in the near term. The highest addition and concentration of open interest was at 22000 put.

 

--Nifty 50 March closed at 23390.00, up 190.70 points; 18.80-point discount to the spot index

--Nifty 50 April closed at 23538.60, up 185.90 points; 129.80-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 May closed at 23678.00, up 174.50 points; 269.20-point premium to the spot index

 

HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Larsen & Toubro, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Infosys, Maruti Suzuki India, National Aluminium Co., Tata Consultancy Services, Bandhan Bank, Axis Bank, Shriram Finance, Bharti Airtel, Tata Steel, Bharat Electronics, Bajaj Auto, and Bajaj Finance were the most actively traded underlying stocks Monday.  End

 

US$1 = INR 92.42

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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