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Informist, Friday, Mar. 13, 2026

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to fall more in the coming week, paving way to Dalal Street's worst month since the Covid pandemic. So far this month, both the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex have fallen over 8%. The last time when the indices fell over 8% a month was back in March 2020. 

The risk-off sentiment is expected to continue with no signs of de-escalation of the conflict between Iran, Israel and the US and on expectations of crude oil prices remaining higher amid the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz risks crude oil rising to $110–$150 per barrel in four to eight weeks, Nuvama Institutional Equities said in a report. The releasing of strategic reserves may provide near-term relief but may lead to future demand restocking, the brokerage said.

The continued rise in crude oil prices has triggered fresh worries about the overall growth of the economy, with expectations of higher inflation and a widening current account deficit. Further, there are concerns over higher input costs stemming from a shortage of energy supply and higher logistics costs taking a hit on the margins of domestic companies across sectors, mainly those with higher exposure to exports, analysts said.  

Adding to the negative sentiment, foreign institutional investors continued to be net seller in March, selling Indian equities worth around INR 527 billion so far in the month. Going forward, analysts also point out a possible risk of domestic institutional investors pulling their money out from the equity market.

In the week's final trading session, both the Nifty 50 and the BSE Sensex fell around 2%. The 50-stock index settled at 23151.10, down 488.05 points from previous close. The Sensex ended at 74563.92, down 1470.50 points. The headline indices have fallen over 8% since the beginning of the conflict. The Nifty 50 is now more than 3000 points away from its record high of 26373.2 points hit on Jan. 5. The BSE Sensex is around 11600 points away from its all-time high of 86159.02 points hit on Dec. 1. 

Going forward, if Nifty sustains above the 23000 support zone, the index could witness a pullback rally towards the 24000 resistance level, Sundar Kewat, technical and derivative analyst at Ashika Institutional Equities said. "A buy-on-dips strategy may be considered near the 23000 zone with strict risk management. On the downside, a decisive daily close below 23000 could intensify the selling pressure and may drag the index further towards the 22500 support level", he added.  End

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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