Growth Forecast
OPEC retains 2026 oil demand growth view at 1.4 mln bpd; 2027 view also unchanged
This story was originally published at 20:06 IST on 11 March 2026
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--OPEC retains growth view for oil demand in 2026 at 1.4 mln bpd
--OPEC retains growth view for oil demand in 2027 at 1.3 mln bpd
--OPEC retains non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2026 at 600,000 bpd
--OPEC retains non-OPEC oil supply growth view for 2027 at 600,000 bpd
--OPEC oil production in Feb at 28.63 mln bpd, up 164,000 bpd on month
--OPEC, allies' Feb oil output at 42.72 mln bpd, up 445,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: Russia Feb oil output at 9.18 mln bpd, down 56,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: Kazakhstan Feb oil output at 1.5 mln bpd, up 293,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: Venezuela Feb oil output at 903,000 bpd, up 80,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: Saudi Arabia Feb oil output at 10.1 mln bpd, up 24,000 bpd on month
--OPEC: OECD Jan crude oil stocks down 19.9 mln bbl on month at 2.82 bln bbl
--OPEC: OECD Jan crude oil stocks 9.8 mln bbl higher than latest 5-yr avg
MUMBAI – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has kept its forecast for growth in global crude oil demand for 2026 unchanged at 1.4 million barrels per day. Global oil demand in 2027 is forecast to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day, also unchanged from the group's last forecast, OPEC said in its March Oil Market Report.
India's oil demand in 2026 is seen at 5.88 million barrels per day, slightly higher than OPEC's previous projection of 5.87 million barrels per day. In 2027, India's oil demand is projected to rise to 6.10 million barrels per day, also marginally higher than the previous forecast of 6.09 million barrels per day.
Demand for oil from countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to grow by 150,000 barrels per day this year, while demand from non-OECD countries is forecast to grow by around 1.2 million barrels per day, both unchanged from the earlier projection. In 2027, oil demand from OECD countries is expected to grow by around 100,000 barrels per day, and non-OECD demand by 1.2 million barrels per day, according to OPEC.
Oil demand in non-OECD countries is expected to be driven primarily by Asian nations, particularly India and China. Oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by transportation fuels, as well as healthy industrial, construction and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries, OPEC said.
Oil supply from countries that have not participated in the Declaration of Cooperation is forecast to grow by 600,000 barrels per day, averaging 54.80 million barrels per day this year, with growth unchanged from January's forecast. The main drivers of growth are expected to be Brazil, Canada, the US, and Argentina. In 2027, supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is also estimated to rise by 600,000 barrels per day, averaging 55.40 million barrels per day. The main drivers of growth in 2027 are expected to be Brazil, Canada, Qatar, and Argentina.
Crude oil production in February from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation – or OPEC and its allies – rose by 445,000 barrels per day from January to 42.72 million barrels per day, according to secondary sources in the report. In February, according to the secondary sources, total OPEC crude oil production was 28.63 million barrels per day, up 164,000 barrels per day from January.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC's de facto leader, produced 10.1 million barrels per day of oil in February, 24,000 barrels per day more than in January. Oil output in Russia fell 56,000 barrels per day in February to 9.18 million barrels per day. Oil output in Kazakhstan, which had been accused of exceeding its quota last year, rose 293,000 barrels per day to nearly 1.5 million barrels per day during the month. Venezuela's oil production last month rose 80,000 barrels per day to 903,000 barrels per day.
In January, commercial crude oil stocks with OECD countries fell 19.9 million barrels on month to 2.82 billion barrels, according to the report. Stocks were 9.8 million barrels higher than the latest five-year average. At 1919 IST, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude futures was 1.7% higher at $84.84 per barrel. The price of Brent Crude futures on the Intercontinental Exchange was $89.54 per barrel, up 2% from the previous close. End
US$1 = INR 92.04
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Ashutosh Pati
Edited by Saji George Titus
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