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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026

 

By Ashutosh Pati and Pallavi Singhal

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – Indian refiners have ramped up purchases of Russian crude oil since the US announced a 30-day waiver late last week. Arrivals of Russian barrels into India are already estimated to be around 1.5 million barrels per day as of Wednesday, according to global data and trade analytics firm Kpler. "Looking ahead, if the current shipment schedules and cargo movements continue, total Russian crude arrivals for the full month could reach close to 2 million barrels per day, or potentially even exceed that level," Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling, Kpler, said.

 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Friday said the US is issuing a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil. "To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil," Bessent said in a post on X, formerly Twitter.

 

Around 15 million barrels of Russian crude have already arrived at Indian ports as of now, with a further 25 million barrels expected to arrive over the remainder of March, Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler, said. "This would already place total arrivals in March above the volumes seen in January and February 2026," Dubey said.

 

Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. has bought over 5.4 million barrels of Russian oil so far in March, making it the largest buyer among Indian refiners, according to Kpler data. Nayara Energy follows with imports of around 3.7 million barrels, while Reliance Industries Ltd. has purchased about 2.9 million barrels. Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. has bought around 1.5 million barrels, and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. has imported about 550,000 barrels so far this month.

 

Kpler projects total Russian volumes in March for IOC at 6.1 million barrels and BPCL at 2.5 million barrels. "Projected volumes are subject to change as voyage details become clearer," it said.

 

Despite the recent tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, India's crude and refined product supply position remains comfortable, according to Ritolia.

 

Nearly 50% of India's crude oil imports typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, making the route strategically important for the country's energy security. However, India currently has adequate inventories of crude oil and refined products across refineries and storage facilities, which can support domestic demand in the near term, he said.

 

While India's stockholding system is different from the strategic petroleum reserves maintained by some developed economies, the inventories held by refiners and storage operators are considered sufficient to meet domestic consumption while alternative crude supplies are arranged, he said.

 

In recent years, Indian refiners have also diversified their crude oil sourcing, increasing purchases from Russia while continuing to import oil from the US, West Africa and other regions, he said, adding that this has helped reduce reliance on any single supply route.

 

"Even if supply conditions tighten, refiners have the flexibility to adjust exports of refined fuels to prioritise domestic availability." India typically processes more crude than it consumes and exports the surplus petroleum products.

 

As a result, he said there is no indication of any near-term shortage of petrol or diesel in the domestic market. However, liquefied petroleum gas availability could be "an area to watch" in the coming weeks, he said. LPG demand in India is closely linked to household consumption and government subsidy programmes.

 

As the military conflict in West Asia, which has affected the production and transportation of oil and gas in the Persian Gulf region, entered its twelfth day Wednesday, the shortage of liquefied petroleum gas has already started affecting Indian consumers. The government has invoked the Essential Commodities Act, 1955, and started rationing LPG cylinders for domestic use. Given the acute shortage of commercial LPG cylinders, restaurants and small eateries are being forced to shut down.

 

Refineries can partly manage supply by adjusting operations to maximise LPG recovery, including shifting feedstocks away from petrochemical production, according to Ritolia.   End

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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