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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – The Nifty 50 index is expected to continue its downward trend Thursday after it closed below 24000 points Wednesday for the first time since April. Analysts expect volatility in the market to remain high, given the uncertain global cues, rising crude oil prices, and worsening military conflict in West Asia.

After Tuesday's rebound rally, the benchmark equity indices closed sharply lower Wednesday as crude oil prices rose again with escalation in the conflict in West Asia disrupting global energy supplies. Though US President Donald Trump had signalled that the conflict would end soon, the US and Israel continued to launch fresh strikes on Iran, and the latter continued to hit back. The US military claimed to have "eliminated" 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz Tuesday, Reuters reported, quoting the US Central Command. Trump had earlier warned that any mines laid in the strait by Iran must be removed immediately.

The International Energy Agency has proposed the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest release of oil reserves in its history, to offset supply disruptions ‌due to the conflict, The Wall Street Journal reported, quoting officials familiar with the matter. The agency's 32 member countries are set to decide on the plan later in the day. 

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi also said her country would release oil from its strategic reserves as soon as Mar. 16 to boost supply and keep a lid on prices. Japan is a member of the International Energy Agency. Japan will release 15 days' worth of oil from private-sector stockpiles and 30 days' worth from government reserves, Takaichi said in a television broadcast. Another IEA member country, Germany, has also confirmed that it will release oil reserves as part of the agency's proposal, Reuters reported, quoting the country's Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche.

The continued rise in crude oil prices after Tuesday's pullback fanned worries about its potential impact on inflation and growth. Disruption in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively shut since the beginning of the conflict, beyond mid-March, a delayed normalisation of energy supply from affected producers, and persistent uncertainty could strain India's external sector, spilling over into the domestic economy and fiscal pressures, Elara Capital said in a strategy note. The broking firm expects the country's current account deficit to widen to 2% of GDP in an extreme scenario where Brent crude stays at the $100 per-barrel level through the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar). Previously it had estimated the current account deficit to be 1% of GDP with crude oil prices at $70 per barrel.

Going forward, Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain above $95 per barrel for the next two months before falling below $80 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026, and to around $70 per barrel by the end of the year, the US Energy Information Administration said in its short-term energy outlook for March.

The increased global energy prices are expected to exert pressure on the earnings of oil marketing companies in the near term, with limited adjustment in domestic fuel prices, Moody's Ratings said in a report. India imported 88% and 51% of its oil and gas requirements, respectively, in FY25, which exposes oil marketing companies' cost base directly to movement in global energy prices. However, Moody's expect their earnings to recover as prices normalise.

Wednesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 23866.85 points, down 394.75 points or 1.6%. The BSE Sensex ended at 76863.71, down 1,342.27 points or 1.7%. Thursday, the 50-stock index is expected to find support at 23800-23500 points and see resistance at 24000-24400 points, according to technical analysts. 

"The pullback rally that started on Monday fizzled out after facing resistance around the price resistance zone of 24350 spot levels," Vipin Kumaar, assistant vice-president, technical and derivatives, Globe Capital Market, said. "Going ahead, sustained trading below 23800 spot levels might drag (Nifty 50) towards 23400-23200 spot levels in the near term." On the higher side, 24300-24400 points will act as the immediate resistance, he said.  End

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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