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Informist, Tuesday, Mar. 10, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to remain under pressure in the near term as market participants await further clarity on when the conflict between Iran and the US-Israel combine will end. While geopolitical uncertainty and continued outflow of foreign funds are expected to weigh on market sentiment, some technical analysts expect the indices to continue Tuesday's rebound in the coming session. 

 

Major global equity markets saw a rebound Tuesday as oil prices fell after jumping to a multi-year high in the previous session. Crude oil prices retreated after US President Donald Trump late Monday signalled that the conflict in West Asia is likely to end soon. He also said the US would remove crude oil-related sanctions on certain countries as a way to lower prices of the commodity.

 

However, Israel and Iran continued to launch strikes Tuesday, extending the regional conflict to the eleventh day. In the latest to the series, Israel, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates reported fresh Iranian missile attacks towards them, according to a BBC report. Meanwhile, explosions were reported in Tehran, the capital city of Iran, shortly after the Israel Defence Forces said it had begun a new wave of strikes on the city.

 

The US is considering seizing control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route that accounts for nearly 20% of global crude oil and gas flows. "If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far," Trump said in a post on Truth Social Monday. The comments come as a spokesperson for Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Monday warned that oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful."

 

"Iran does not fear your empty threats,...Even those greater than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation. Watch out for yourself, lest you be eliminated!" Iran's top national security official, Ali Larijani wrote in a post on 'X' on Tuesday in response to Trump's threat to intensify attacks on Iran if it blocks flows of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

On Tuesday, the May futures contract of Brent Crude on the Intercontinental Exchange fell over 11% to an intraday low of $88.05 per barrel. At 1810 IST, the contract had come off lows and was at $93.78 per barrel, down over 5% from the previous close. This came a day after oil prices had surged to nearly $120 per barrel amid the worsening crisis in West Asia and fears of global supply disruptions.

 

However, oil prices are expected to rise more if the tensions in West Asia escalate further, analysts said. Resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively been closed since the beginning of the conflict on Feb. 28, will be needed to sustain the decline in oil prices, The Wall Street Journal reported, quoting analysts at ING. "Trump's words will only go so far," the ING analysts said. "Ultimately, the market will need to see a resumption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to sustain a move lower in oil prices."

 

Even if the hostilities in West Asia ease, oil prices are likely to remain higher than te levels before the West Asia conflict, Dow Jow Jones Newswires reported, citing a report by DBS Group Research. Even if the conflict de-escalates, any recovery in oil output is likely to be gradual, the research firm said.

 

With the recent correction, the valuations of Nifty 50 companies have come to "decent levels," a whole-time director at a domestic brokerage said. However, because of the geopolitical uncertainty, the investment environment has been impacted, she said adding that "FPI allocations are still not very positive to India". If oil prices do not stabilise at current levels, or if they keep rising, it is going to impact inflation, the whole-time director said. "If the things (tensions in West Asia) do not settle soon, the growth is going to get impacted. If growth gets impacted, valuations also will get impacted," she added.

 

Despite the rebound on Tuesday, both the Nifty 50 and the Sensex are still around 4% lower than their respective levels before the conflict in West Asia broke out on Feb. 28. On Tuesday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24261.60, up 233.55 points or 1%. The BSE Sensex ended at 78205.98 points, up 639.82 points or 0.8%. 

 

"We are of the view that in the short term, the market remains weak, but as long as it (Nifty 50) trades above 24000-24100 levels, a pullback move is likely to continue," Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. However, a fall below 24000 points would lead to a further fall in the 50-stock index, Chouhan said. "Below that (24000 points), the chances of hitting 23900-23850 would increase".  End

 

US$1 = INR 91.8050

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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