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Informist, Monday, Mar. 9, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Headline equity indices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming session with no clear signs of de-escalation of tensions in West Asia. Uncertain global cues, rising crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions, coupled with a weak rupee against the dollar and continued foreign institutional investor outflows, are expected to weigh on market sentiment in the near term, analysts said. On the other hand, after the recent sharp decline, some analysts expect a rebound in the benchmark indices in the coming sessions.   

 

Monday, the benchmark indices closed 1.7% lower each, erasing almost half their intraday losses, as crude oil prices cooled after rising to nearly $120 per barrel earlier in the day. According to reports, finance ministers of G7 countries will meet later Monday to discuss the release of emergency oil reserves. Further, oil giant Saudi Aramco has offered more than 4 million barrels of Saudi crude through a series of rare tenders, as the conflict in West Asia continues to disrupt supplies, according to a Bloomberg report. 

 

During the day, the May Brent crude futures contract surged around 29% to $119.50 per barrel, the highest level since June 2022. Oil prices rose after major oil producers in West Asia decided to reduce output following recent drone attacks, while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, forcing Persian Gulf producers to store stranded crude in onshore tanks, according to analysts. 

 

The G7 finance ministers meeting will discuss a joint release of petroleum from reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency, The Financial Times reported. If reserves are released, it would be the first such action since 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices are likely to see some respite and fall back to the $100-per-barrel level if the G-7 countries decide to release crude oil at the expected levels, head of research at a domestic brokerage said. However, if there is no resolution to the prevailing situation in West Asia, crude oil prices will edge higher and may reach $130–$140 per barrel levels, the head of research said. This could, in turn, lead to another brutal fall in global equity markets. 

 

The recent surge in crude oil prices has raised fears of higher inflation and a wider current account deficit. "We are expecting inflation to move up significantly if this (conflict between Iran and the US-Israel combine) persists for a longer period of time," the head of research said. Further, the country's gross domestic product is also expected to be impacted if the war persists for the next four to six weeks. 

 

The Indian Rupee is expected to remain under pressure amid elevated energy prices, Jateen Trivedi, vice president- commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. The currency is expected to trade within the INR 91.75 to INR 92.90 per dollar range in the near term, with crude price and global risk sentiment remaining the key drivers, he said. Monday, the rupee ended at a record closing low of 92.3275 a dollar, down from 91.7400 Friday. 

 

Monday, the Nifty 50 settled at 24028.05 points, down 422.40 points or 1.7%, marking the lowest closing price in over 10 months. The BSE Sensex closed at 77566.16 points, down 1352.74 points or 1.7%. This was the lowest closing price of the 30-stock index in over 11 months. 

 

Analysts see 23700 points as major support for the Nifty 50. "As long as Nifty (50) holds above this (23700 points) level, the possibility of a technical bounce back in the coming days remains strong," Rishabh Srivastava, technical analyst at Lakshmi Shree Investment and Securities Pvt. Ltd., said. "On the upside, the immediate target to watch is the 24330 level, which marks a key resistance and an unfilled gap area. A move toward 24330 could indicate short-term recovery, while a break below 23700 may extend the current downside trend," he added.  End 

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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