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Informist, Monday, Mar. 9, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – High crude oil prices are unlikely to have a substantial impact on India's inflation at this point as the CPI print is near the lower bound of the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Monday. India's retail inflation averaged 1.8% in Apr-Jan.

 

The minister's comment comes at a time when the price of Brent crude has jumped up 45% to over $100 per barrel in the aftermath of the US and Israel launching joint attack on Iran. The conflict in West Asia is currently in its second week with no sign of de-escalation.

 

Quoting the RBI's Monetary Policy Report, Sitharaman said that inflation could rise by 30 basis points if crude oil prices are 10% higher than the baseline expectation, and assuming full pass-through to domestic prices. The report has projected India's inflation for 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) at 4.5% assuming crude oil basket price at $70 per barrel.

 

"However, the medium-term impact of the global crude oil price rise on inflation depends on several factors, including exchange rate movements, global demand and supply situation, monetary policy transmission, the state of general inflation, and the extent of the indirect pass-through," Sitharaman said in response to a question in the Lok Sabha.  End

 

US$1 = INR 92.31

 

Reported by Krity Ambey

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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