Oil Stocks Outlook
Seen range-bound amid surge in crude oil prices
This story was originally published at 18:54 IST on 6 March 2026
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MUMBAI – The stocks in the Nifty Oil & Gas index are expected to be range-bound amid the surge in crude oil prices on the back of hostilities in West Asia between the US, Israel, and Iran. Analysts said that upstream companies will be key beneficiaries of the oil price surge. On Friday, Nifty Oil & Gas ended 0.2% lower at 11787.30 points.
The support for the Nifty Oil & Gas is seen at 11400 points and the resistance is expected at 11970 points, according to Jatin Gedia, vice-president, technical research at Teji Mandi Investment Technologies. Most of the constituents in Nifty Oil & Gas ended lower Friday. Upstream companies – Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. ended around 1% higher each. Every $1 increase in per barrel crude oil would boost the earnings per share of these companies by 1.5–2.0%, JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. said.
Oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. are expected to feel the heat of the oil prices heavily. For every $1 increase in per barrel will trim the gross marketing margins of these companies by INR 0.55 per litre. This will also drag down their consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation by 1–9%. Hindustan Petroleum Corp. is expected to be worst hit given its highest leverage in the marketing business, JM Financial said. Shares of Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. ended 2–3%.
The May Futures of Brent Crude Oil rose to the highest level since April 2024 to $89.50 per barrel. Crude oil prices have gained nearly 23% since the beginning of hostilities in West Asia after the US and Israel launched a combined attack on Iran. At 1800 IST, the May Futures of Brent Crude Oil was at $88.91 per barrel, up over 4% from the previous close.
The prices briefly eased after the US issued waivers allowing companies, particularly Indian refiners, to purchase sanctioned Russian crude to ease supply shortages, Kotak Securities said. The geopolitical uncertainties lifted prices sharply as the market remains sensitive to supply flows and policy responses, the brokerage said. "If disruptions around Hormuz persist, crude could sustain its upward momentum in the near term despite partial supply relief from Russian barrels," Kotak Securities added.
TOP HEADLINES
* IOC to pay INR 2 per share interim dividend; record date set as Mar 12
* Reuters: Govt asks oil refiners to make LPG available to IOC, HPCL, BPCL
* US allows Indian refiners to buy Russia oil stranded at sea in 30-day waiver
* Petronet LNG Issues force majeure notices to its off-takers IOC, BPCL, GAIL
* ONGC subsidiary says production, supply at its Dahej plant 'constrained'
* Gas shortage may force some mfg units to cut output within a wk, say sources
* Crude oil prices have not skyrocketed due to lot of "oil on water" - Kpler
* Brokerages see gas cos under pressure, oil explorers gaining from W Asia war
* GAIL says assessing need to cut gas supply to downstream customers
* Gujarat Gas issues force majeure notice to industrial customers
* Petronet LNG issues force majeure notice as West Asia conflict disrupts ops
* PRESS: Retail fuel prices unlikely to increase despite crude climbing to $80
* FOCUS: Kpler says India has 40-45 days' cover for oil supply disruptions
* FOCUS: Oil prices in for a bumpy ride; Brent may surge to $85/bbl this week
* FOCUS: Refiners to face margin pressure as oil price spikes after US attack
* Oil ministry reviews crude, LPG, supply situation amid rising tensions
* Petronet LNG nominates GAIL CMD Deepak Gupta as nominee director on its board
Following are the resistance and support levels for key oil stocks for next week as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:
| Company | Price | Week-on-week change in % | Resistance | Support |
| Bharat Petroleum Corp | 352.75 | (-)8.50 | 366.20 | 344.50 |
| Hindustan Petroleum Corp | 404.95 | (-)7.70 | 426.90 | 391.10 |
| Indian Oil Corp | 168.68 | (-)10.00 | 174.80 | 165.00 |
| Oil & Natural Gas Corp | 278.95 | (-)0.30 | 286.80 | 267.20 |
| Oil India | 484.50 | 0.10 | 497.10 | 468.40 |
| Reliance Industries | 1404.80 | 0.80 | 1440.50 | 1372.50 |
| Index | Levels | |||
| NIFTY OIL & GAS | 11787.30 | (-)3.90 | 11940.90 | 11686.40 |
| Nifty 50 | 24450.45 | (-)2.90 | 24807.50 | 24237.20 |
| S&P BSE Sensex | 78918.90 | (-)2.90 | 80102.20 | 78220.50 |
End
US$1 = INR 91.74
Reported by Adhithya Aji
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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