More Stories

Informist, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

MUMBAI – Most brokerages see the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs and the 10% tariff announced by Trump in response to the ruling on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 as largely positive for India. After the court ruling, Trump also declared that all national security tariffs under Sections 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and Section 301 of Trade Act will stay in effect.

Emkay Global Financial Services said that following these developments, around 55% of India's exports to the US will now face only 15% tariffs, while around 40% will remain exempt from tariffs including electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. The rest will face their respective tariff rates under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act, but India does not export much of these goods to the US. With this, the effective tariff rate on Indian exports to the US is now likely to be 11–13%, Emkay Global said in a report Monday.

With effective tariff rates at 11–13% and no threat of Russian oil-linked higher tariffs, we expect a more favourable negotiation with the US, Emkay Global said. This compares favourably to China, whose effective rate is likely to be above 15%, while most other Asian peers will have similar effective tariff rates to that of India, the brokerage added. The extent of effective relief hinges on countries' export dependence on Section 232 goods including steel, aluminium, copper, automobiles and more. After China, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea are the most affected by these duties, with Japan and Korea particularly affected as the US is their primary auto export market. For others, including India, exposure is mainly indirect, through steel and aluminium in manufactured goods, the brokerage added. 

Elara Capital calculates the policy implied effective tariff rates on Indian exports to the US to be 9.1%, at par and in some cases lower than Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and Bangladesh. The reduction in tariffs from 18% to 15% should improve pricing competitiveness for Indian exporters in the US market, JM Financial Research said in a report. "The ruling may also support the India–US trade discussions and strengthen India's position in global supply chains as US firms diversify beyond China. However, the risk of new tariffs under different US laws remains," JM Financial said. 

The ruling by the US Supreme Court marks a significant check on presidential trade authority and reinforces Congress as the primary decision-maker on tariffs. Over time, this may lead to a more structured and rule-based approach to trade policy rather than rapid executive action, JM Financial said. The brokerage expects trade measures to become less sudden but more procedural and reduce the likelihood of abrupt policy shifts driven by emergency powers. 

Emkay Global expects these developments to lead to the reassessment of various trade deals announced by the US with countries over the last year. It expects the India-US trade deal to be renegotiated with a focus on making it more equitable, with India under less pressure now to make large concessions. However, higher trade uncertainty will continue, as the Trump administration assesses alternative ways to impose tariffs, the brokerage said.   End

Reported by Arya S. Biju

Edited by Ashish Shirke

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.