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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026

 

By Simran Rede

 

MUMBAI – After the Nifty 50 closed over 1% lower Thursday, market participants expect the index to extend its losses Friday and ending on a negative note for the second consecutive week. Traders placed more bearish bets on the derivatives segment of the Nifty 50 on Thursday as they expect the benchmark index to fall further owing to rising geopolitical tensions, according to technical and derivatives analysts.

 

The domestic market, which rallied earlier this month on optimism around the US-India trade deal, saw investors rush to take out profits and place bearish bets in a market amid rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Analysts expect the domestic market to fall more in the short term due to this growing global uncertainty and rising crude oil prices.

 

On Thursday, the futures contract of Brent crude oil traded on the Intercontinental Exchange was 1.1% higher at $71.15 per barrel at 1642 IST. The contract rose over the $71-mark for the first time since Jan. 29. 

 

In the options chain of the Nifty 50, premiums on 25600-25900 call strikes expiring Tuesday declined 76-79% and open interest for these contracts increased over 4 million-9 million, hinting at the addition of short positions. Premiums on 24800-25100 put options increased a whopping 118-250%. The maximum open interest addition was at the 25600-point call and 24800-point put options.

 

The February and March futures series also saw traders adding short positions. The February contract closed at a discount while the March contract closed at a premium to the spot index, but both mirrored the weakness in the cash market and closed sharply lower. 

 

If the index falls further or sees a gap-down open Friday, it is likely to test 25000 points and the sentiment is expected to turn negative, a technical analyst at a domestic brokerage said. The index may continue its downward journey further if it falls 200-300 points Friday, he said.

 

Investors' fears of a further fall in the market was evident Thursday, as the India VIX, widely known as the fear guage, rose over 10% to 13.46. On Thursday, the market faced a broad-based sell-off with all sectoral and broader market indices closing in the red. Nifty Realty was the worst-hit sectoral index, ending 2.6% lower. 

 

The Nifty 50 settled at 25454.35, down 365 points or 1.4%, and the BSE Sensex settled at 82498.15, down 1236.11 points or 1.5%, on Thursday. The market erased all gains from the previous three sessions as investors booked profits Thursday. Barring just four stocks, all Nifty 50 constituents ended lower. On the other hand, all constituents in the Sensex index fell.  

 

The broader market also witnessed a sell-off, with 71% of all stocks traded on the NSE closing in the red. Traders sold out-of-the-money call contracts of Nifty 50 derivatives while also unwinding their positions in put options, Vipin Kumaar, assistant-vice president – technical and derivatives at Globe Capital Market, said. This put pressure on the Nifty 50 index.

 

"Current chart structure is indicating towards limited upside with a sell-on-rise trading approach as long as it is trading below 25800 spot levels on closing basis," Kumar said. Technical and derivatives analysts expect the 50-stock index to face resistance at 25800-26000 points and find support at 25400-25000 points. 

 

--Nifty 50 February closed at 25410.00, down 417.80 points; 44.35-point discount to the spot index

--Nifty 50 March closed at 25563.50, down 420.50 points; 109.15-point premium to the spot index

--Nifty 50 April closed at 25724.00, down 420.50 points; 269.65-point premium to the spot index

 

HDFC Bank, Infosys, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bajaj Finance, Bharti Airtel, Tata Consultancy Services, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Vodafone Idea, Axis Bank, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Eternal, JSW Steel, Larsen & Toubro, and Hindustan Unilever were the most actively traded underlying stocks Thursday.  End

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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