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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

 

By Narayana Krishna

 

HYDERABAD – Lupin Ltd. is expected to deliver a strong year-on-year earnings growth in the December quarter, driven by sharp growth in its US business on the back of sustained traction in some of its key products, according to analysts. Analysts expect the US business to post a higher rate of growth while India sales to post a healthy growth for the quarter.

 

Lupin is expected to report 44% year-on-year increase in net profit for the December quarter to nearly INR 12.3 billion. The company's revenue is expected to rise nearly 17% year-on-year to INR 67.6 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. From the trailing quarter, the net profit is likely to fall nearly 17%, while revenue is expected to decline 4%, the estimates show.

 

Lupin's quarter-on-quarter earnings performance is seen weak due to pricing pressure and high base in the September quarter, according to analysts. Lupin will announce its December quarter results Thursday.

 

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 16.15 billion from Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd., while the lowest estimate of INR 9.69 billion is from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. The highest revenue estimate is by Systematix at INR 72 billion, and the lowest is by Nirmal Bang at nearly INR 62.6 billion.

 

US DRIVERS

Lupin's US business is expected to be the fastest-growing among large peers during the December quarter, driven by a sharp ramp-up in complex generics. Key products such as Tolvaptan, used in the treatment of kidney disease; Spiriva, prescribed for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and Mirabegron, used to treat overactive bladder, are likely to drive the December quarter US sales growth, according to analysts.

 

A sustained scale-up in Tolvaptan, along with early contributions from injectable launches such as glucagon, should drive strong US sales growth, according to Systematix. The company may report healthy growth despite low single-digit price erosion in the base portfolio. The brokerage added that a favorable product mix and market share gains are likely to support revenue growth.

 

Nirmal Bang expects Lupin's US business to report strong double-digit year-on-year growth, led by launches of Mirabegron and Tolvaptan, supported by currency tailwinds. Limited competition in some key drugs and improving realisations should also aid December quarter earnings.

 

Lupin's US business is likely to grow faster than its peers, driven primarily by key drugs, with US sales expected to post over 20% on-year growth, according to ICICI Securities. Kotak Institutional Equities expects continued traction in Tolvaptan and a full-quarter benefit of Glucagon as key growth drivers, although pricing pressure in products such as the asthma drug Albuterol could curtail some gains on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

 

Lupin's domestic formulations business is expected to deliver healthy growth in the December quarter, supported by chronic therapies and new launches. Lupin is expected to report weakness in its institutional or tender segment business for the quarter.

 

In other markets such as Europe, West Asia, and Africa, along with other emerging markets too, Lupin is expected to report a healthy growth, according to analysts. Kotak Institutional Equities expects Lupin's EMEA (Europe, West Asia, and Africa) business to grow 11% on year and rest of the world markets to expand 18% on year in the December quarter, driven by portfolio expansion and steady traction in key therapies.

 

MARGIN SCENARIO

Analysts expect Lupin to deliver a sharp expansion in December quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation on a year-on-year basis, supported by strong growth in the US business and a favorable product mix. Systematix estimates EBITDA to grow over 60% year-over-year, aided by operating leverage and improving mix, even as the company continues to invest in research and development to support future launches. Lupin's December quarter EBITDA is projected at INR 18.8 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages.

 

EBITDA margin is expected to remain elevated on a year-on-year basis, though brokerages flag some sequential moderation. Nuvama Wealth expects the consolidated EBITDA margin to stay in the 28.5–29.0% range, supported by the absence of competition in Tolvaptan, while Kotak Institutional Equities sees margins easing sequentially due to higher spending on research and development and negligible incentives under the performance-linked incentive scheme.

 

Analysts are looking forward to the company's comments on the sustainability of the Tolvaptan contribution going forward. Ramping up of other key products is another area of interest, along with the the product launch pipeline in the US.

 

Of the 13 research reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 2,391. This is nearly 11% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 2,082 and one has a 'sell' recommendation with a price target of INR 1,903.

 

The stock has risen nearly 22% since the announcement of its September quarter earnings. At 1202 IST, the company shares were trading at INR 2215 on the National Stock Exchange, up nearly 1% on previous close.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Lupin Ltd. from 13 brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage name	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	72.07	16.15	22.09
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	71.52	14.43	20.77
Kotak Securities Ltd	68.47	14.06	19.89
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	68.73	12.66	19.55
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	69.79	12.63	19.40
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	66.72	12.40	19.35
HDFC Securities Ltd	68.15	12.03	19.42
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	67.61	11.99	19.00
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	65.39	11.63	18.29
YES Securities (India) Ltd	68.43	11.37	18.09
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	62.64	11.18	16.91
ICICI Securities Ltd	63.46	10.18	16.50
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	65.47	9.69	15.99
Average	67.57	12.34	18.87

End

 

US$1 = INR XX.XX

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

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