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Informist, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel

 

MUMBAI – Mining major Hindalco Ltd. is expected to report a double-digit year-on-year increase in its consolidated top line and bottom line for the December quarter, according to brokerages tracking the company. The growth in the company's bottom line is likely due to strong domestic operations, increase in volume, and an increase in prices of aluminum and copper. The bottom line growth, however, is expected to be weighed down owing to the fire incident in Oswego plant of Novelis Inc., its US-based subsidiary.

 

The company's net profit for the December quarter is expected to be INR 42.45 billion, up more than 12% on year but down nearly 14% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The company's net profit was INR 37.76 billion for the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate for the December quarter net profit is INR 48.10 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 38.15 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

 

The mining major's revenue from operations is expected to be INR 659.65 billion, up nearly 13% on year, but flat sequentially, according to the average of estimates. The company's revenue was INR 583.90 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate of top line is INR 715.20 billion by Systematix, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 611.24 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

For the September quarter, Novelis contributed nearly 63% to the company's revenue, whereas the copper business contributed 22% to the company's revenue. Aluminium upstream contributed more than 15%, whereas aluminium downstream contributed nearly 6% to Hindalco's revenue from operations.

 

Novelis' aluminium plant in Oswego in New York was hit by a fire incident in September, leading to damages worth $21 million. The company said that the disrupted production due to the accident would have a short-term negative impact on Novelis' operating profit from the December quarter.

 

For 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the company has pegged the impact of the fire on its adjusted earnings before, interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization at $100 million-$150 million. This incident is also likely to impact free cash flow negatively to the extent of around $550 million-$650 million. Novelis' Oswego plant supplies 40% of aluminium sheet required by the US auto sector, according to S&P Global.  

 

Hindalco's EBITDA is expected to be INR 82.57 billion, flat on year but down more than 9% on quarter, according to the average of estimates. The company's EBITDA was INR 82.46 billion for the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate of EBITDA is INR 86.60 billion by Systematix, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 79.06 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd.

 

Novelis' EBITDA is expected to decline to $290 million-$330 million for the December quarter, according to the estimates by six brokerages. The company's EBITDA was $367 million in the year-ago quarter.

 

Seven brokerages expect the aluminium business volumes including aluminium upstream, aluminium downstream, and Utkal Alumina International Ltd. to be 332,000–456,000 tonnes. Hindalco's total aluminium volumes were 435,000 tonnes in the year-ago quarter.

 

The copper business volumes are expected to be 113,000–124,000 tonnes, according to six estimates. The company's copper business volumes were 216,000 tonnes in the year-ago quarter.

 

The volumes from the Novelis business are expected between 826,000–845,000 tonnes, according to the estimates. Novelis' shipments were 904,000 kilo tonnes in the year-ago quarter.

 

The company will report December quarter earnings Thursday. Monday, shares of the company closed at INR 964.25 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, up over 2%. The shares of the company have risen 22% since the company reported its September quarter earnings.

 

Of the 10 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, six have a 'buy' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 907 per share. This is nearly 6% lower than the current market price. Three brokerages have a 'hold' rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 832 per share. One brokerage has a 'sell' rating on the stock with a target price of INR 765 per share.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Hindalco Ltd. from 10 brokerages in the descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerages	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	715.20	48.10	86.60
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	627.95	45.75	82.79
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	611.24	44.81	82.00
Kotak Securities Ltd	648.48	43.11	81.43
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	627.00	43.00	84.00
YES Securities (India) Ltd	684.80	41.79	82.93
ICICI Securities Ltd	675.73	40.43	79.06
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	678.00	40.20	81.00
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	663.81	39.18	86.42
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	664.25	38.15	79.45
Average	659.65	42.45	82.57

 

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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