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Informist, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

 

By Narayana Krishna

 

HYDERABAD – Strong traction in injectable product sales in the US and continued market expansion in Europe are likely to support moderate growth in Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.'s December quarter earnings, according to analysts. The company is expected to offset the impact of lower sales of the generic cancer drug Revlimid with improved performance across other products in the US portfolio. Analysts have mixed views on the impact of the absence of Revlimid in Aurobindo Pharma's December quarter US revenue.

 

Aurobindo Pharma is expected to report an around 9% on-year as well as on-quarter increase in its consolidated net profit for the December quarter to a little over INR 9 billion, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's bottom line is INR 9.7 billion by Elara Securities Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 8.8 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

The company's revenue is expected to rise a little over 6% on year to INR 84.5 billion, while the same on a trailing basis is seen rising 2%, the estimates show. Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the highest estimate for the company's net sales at INR 87.5 billion, while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 80.7 billion. Aurobindo Pharma will detail its December-quarter earnings Monday.

 

Analysts attribute the December-quarter growth largely to stable performance in core formulations, steady European demand, and a rebound in the active pharmaceutical ingredients segment.

 

Analysts expect Aurobindo Pharma to deliver moderate revenue growth in the December quarter, with estimates pointing to a year-on-year growth of 5-10% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 2-6%. Most brokerages project growth will remain moderate, reflecting the drag from declining Revlimid sales, offset by resilience in core formulations business in the US and Europe.

 

JM Financial and Kotak Securities Ltd. project overall revenue growth of 5–6% on year, while HDFC Securities Ltd. and Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. estimate 6.0-6.2% on-year growth for the December-quarter revenue. On the higher end, Nuvama Wealth projects 9.7-10.0% on-year growth, aided by better seasonality and recovery in select segments.

 

JM Financial expects the API business to grow 9% on year, supporting top line growth, while Kotak Securities sees higher US sales, excluding Revlimid, and steady momentum in injectables to drive the December quarter revenue growth.

Margin pressure from moderation of growth of the injectables business and higher Research & Development spends also tempers earnings growth, although cost optimisation measures help cushion the impact.

 

MIXED VIEWS ON US

Analyst projections on Aurobindo Pharma's US sales for December quarter remain mixed, with analysts pegging US sales growth in a wide range from a 7?cline to around 2% growth, reflecting diverging assumptions around Revlimid.

 

Brokerages, including HDFC Securities, YES Securities, and Motilal Oswal, flag lower contribution from Revlimid as the key drag on revenues for the quarter. ICICI Securities expects US sales to decline 2.2% on year and 2.0% on quarter to about $425 million, while Motilal Oswal expects a sharper 7% on year decline to $405 million, primarily due to reduced Revlimid sales. In contrast, Kotak Securities expects December quarter US sales, excluding Revlimid, to rise 4% on quarter, supported by a 2% quarter-on-quarter increase in overall injectables sales, leading to 3% growth in overall US sales to $430 million.

 

Nuvama Wealth also expects US revenues to grow 3% on year to $447 million, citing better seasonality that could partly offset the Revlimid decline. YES Securities notes that Revlimid sales will likely recede further in Q3, though the sequential decline may remain limited.

 

Analysts remain optimistic on Aurobindo Pharma's Europe performance, with year-on-year growth estimates ranging from 8% to 17%. JM Financial projects 17% on-year growth in Europe, while Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal estimate 12.0-12.3% on-year growth, driven by expanded product offerings and deeper market penetration.

 

Nuvama Wealth expects 8% on-year growth in Europe for the quarter, while HDFC Securities and YES Securities also expect steady growth in Europe sales, helping offset weakness in US sales.

 

Kotak Securities forecasts flat on-year growth in the rest-of-the-world markets, while anti-retroviral segment sales are seen declining modestly for the quarter.

 

Progress at the Penicillin-G plant at Kakinada remains a key thing that investors are watching. Production at the plant halted for some time due to a fire accident. Analysts are looking for clarity on the plant's current status. Since the government has announced minimum import price for Penicillin-G products, analysts want to hear from the company on the future earnings contribution from this plant.

 

Analysts expect Aurobindo Pharma's December quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin to stay largely stable around 20% in the December quarter, with estimates in the 20.0–21.0% range. Analysts expect cost optimisation efforts to likely offset pressure from lower Revlimid contribution and moderation in growth of the injectables business. The average of estimates from 10 brokerages pegs the Aurobindo Pharma December quarter EBITDA at INR 17.2 billion.

 

On Friday, shares of Aurobindo Pharma closed nearly 1% higher at INR 1,191 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares have risen nearly 4% since the company announced its September quarter earnings. Of the 10 research reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,402, over 17% higher than the current market price. One has a "hold" recommendation with a target price of INR 1,663.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. based on reports from 10 brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage name	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	86.41	9.65	17.69
ICICI Securities Ltd	86.53	9.62	17.39
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	84.86	9.36	17.31
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	80.65	9.32	16.94
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	84.74	9.31	17.33
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	87.49	9.26	17.61
HDFC Securities Ltd	84.35	9.22	17.04
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	83.83	9.05	16.90
Kotak Securities Ltd	84.24	8.83	17.07
YES Securities (India) Ltd	82.35	8.76	16.34
Average	84.54	9.24	17.16

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.65

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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