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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

By Shweta

MUMBAI – BSE Ltd. is likely to see a near three-fold on-year jump in its December quarter net profit, driven by revenue growth, according to brokerages. Despite the change in the derivative contracts' expiry day, the exchange is expected to see its revenue rising due to higher derivate volumes, options premium, and transaction revenues.

The BSE is expected to report a consolidated net profit of INR 6.08 billion for the December quarter, up 179% on year, as per the average of estimates from four brokerages. The net profit is likely to grow nearly 9% sequentially from INR 5.58 billion in the September quarter. The highest estimate for the exchange's net profit is INR 6.28 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The lowest estimate is INR 5.8 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The exchange will announce its December quarter earnings Monday.

The exchange is likely to report consolidated revenues of INR 12.23 billion, up over 59% on year and over 14% sequentially, according to the average of estimates. Estimates for the exchange's net sales range from a low of INR 12.09 billion from Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. to a high of INR 12.36 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd.

Continued momentum in premium turnover, growth in transaction charges, improved contribution from listings, and expanding co-location services, will contribute to the growth in the exchange's revenue and net profit, according to Motilal Oswal and Mirae. However, this growth is likely to be partly offset by softer volumes in the cash market, HDFC Securities Ltd. said in a pre-earnings note.

The exchange's consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 7.87 billion for the December quarter, according to the average of three estimates. Its consolidated EBITDA was INR 4.36 billion in the year-ago quarter and INR 6.91 billion for the September quarter. The EBITDA margin is likely to be flat sequentially for the reporting quarter, according to Motilal Oswal and HDFC Securities. The EBITDA margin was 65% in the September quarter and 56% in the year-ago quarter.

According to data from the BSE's website, the company's average daily options premium turnover during the December quarter rose 29% on year to nearly INR 195 billion.

The exchange's revenues will grow despite the change of the expiry day of the futures and options contracts to Thursday from Tuesday in September following a change in norms by the Securities and Exchange Board of India.  "Despite expiry flip, BSE during Q3FY26 reported strong 29.7% QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) growth in index option ADPTV (average daily premium turnover value)," Nuvama said in its pre-earnings note. "SGF (Settlement Guarantee Fund) outgo is expected to normalise to ~6% of derivatives revenue vs 2% last quarter," HDFC Securities said.

The daily options premium turnover improved in the December quarter. In the September quarter, the turnover had declined marginally over the June quarter. The average daily options premium turnover for the December quarter was up 123% from the year-ago quarter. "While the regulatory risk around weekly index options remains a key investor concern, BSE's volume has stabilised post the expiry change in Sep-25 with a premium market share of ~28% in Dec-25," HDFC Securities said. The sequential ramp up in derivative volumes led to an increase in transaction charges, according to Motilal Oswal.

Turnover from the cash market declined sequentially in the December quarter. The average daily cash market turnover in the December quarter was INR 76.45 billion, down 4% on quarter but up over 12% on year.

In the September quarter, the turnover from the cash market improved sequentially but it still did not reach the level of last year--when trading was higher as key indices kept hitting fresh lifetime highs every day.

Analysts will watch for the management commentary on Securities and Exchange Board of India's discussion paper on tweaking the tenure of equity derivatives, improvement of market share in cash market trading, colocation, and an update on settlement guarantee fund contribution.

During the quarter, BSE Ltd.'s wholly owned subsidiary--BSE Technologies Pvt. Ltd.--divested its entire stake in its associate company Ebix Insuretech Pvt. Ltd.

BSE shares are down over 7% since it announced its September quarter earnings. Thursday, shares of the company ended at INR 2,892.20 apiece, on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.14%.

Out of the four brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, two have a 'buy' or an equivalent recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 2,940. This is nearly 2% higher than the current market price. The other two brokerages have a 'hold' or an equivalent recommendation with a target price of INR 2,775.

Following are the December earnings estimates for BSE Ltd. from four brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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