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Informist, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

By Shumaila Firoz

MUMBAI – Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd. is expected to report a net loss for the December quarter as margin pressure and high costs continue to weigh, although revenues are expected to rise and EBITDA is estimated to improve sequentially. 

The company is expected to report a net loss of INR 1.13 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average estimate from five brokerages. Estimates vary widely, reflecting divergent views on the pace of recovery. The five brokerages expect the company to report a net loss varying from INR 429 million to INR 2.03 billion. In contrast, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. is the sole brokerage expecting a net profit of INR 1.43 billion for the December quarter. 

The company is expected to report net sales of INR 23.38 billion for the December quarter, up 6% from a year ago and around 18% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The highest estimate for net sales is INR 23.87 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. while the lowest estimate is INR 22.70 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd.

Aditya Birla Fashion's revenue is expected to be driven by strength in selected segments, even as performance at Pantaloons remains mixed. "We model overall revenue growth of 14.6% qoq on account of 16.5% qoq revenue growth in Pantaloons, 10.3% qoq growth in ethnic and ramp-up of TMRW", Kotak said in a report. 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., however, expects overall revenue to grow only 7% on year, due to weak performance at Pantaloons, where revenue is seen declining 4% on year, which is likely to offset robust growth in other segments. Nuvama estimates the company's top line to be supported by strength in new-age portfolio and ethnic wear business, BUT flags some weak performance at Pantaloons as festive sales were part of the September quarter last year.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 2.72 billion, up over 134% sequentially, however, year-on-year EBITDA is seen declining over 60%, according to the average of five estimates. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 3.31 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 2.04 billion from Kotak. 

The December quarter EBITDA margin is also seen under pressure compared with a year ago quarter due to higher costs linked with the launch of Galaries store and increased marketing investment, according to brokerages.

Kotak expects EBITDA margin of 9.0%, up 550 basis points sequentially. "We model margin expansion on account of better profitability in Pantaloons (closure of loss making stores) and operating leverage in the ethnic + TMRW businesses," Kotak said. However, business is expected to remain loss-making on account of low EBIT margin in Pantaloons and EBIT losses in other business, Kotak added.

Monday, shares of Aditya Birla Fashion ended at INR 64.03 per share on the National Stock Exchange, down over 1%. The stock has fallen nearly 24% since the company announced its September quarter earnings.

Of the five brokerage reports on the company available with the Informist, two have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 95. This is over 48% higher than the current market price. Two brokerages have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 85, while one brokerage has a ‘sell' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 75. 

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd. will announce its October–December quarter results on Thursday. 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd. from six brokerage firms in the descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million: 

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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