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Informist, Monday, Feb. 2, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – State-owned NMDC Ltd. is expected to post a mid-single-digit fall in its bottom line for the December quarter on a year-on-year basis because of lower realisations, according to analysts. However, the iron ore major's top line is expected to increase on the back of higher sales volumes, which is also seen partially offsetting the impact of lower realisations.

NMDC is expected to post a standalone net profit of INR 18.43 billion for the December quarter, down over 5% on year but up around 9% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from nine brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 20.5 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. while the lowest estimate is INR 17 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

The company is likely to have earned revenues of INR 69.39 billion for the December quarter, up over 6% on year and around 11% sequentially, according to the average of the estimates. Prabhudas Lilladher has the highest estimate for the company's top line at INR 74.1 billion while Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 59.16 billion.

NMDC sold 12.7 million tonnes of iron ore in the December quarter, up around 7% on year and 19% sequentially. "The sharp improvement in volumes is likely to provide meaningful support to margins during the quarter, driving sequential earnings recovery," YES Securities (India) Ltd. said.

NMDC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are seen falling around 19% on year and 5% sequentially to INR 22.56 billion, according to the consensus estimate. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from a high of INR 26 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher to a low of INR 20 billion from JM Financial.

The company had cut prices of iron ore lumps and fines by INR 500 per tonne and INR 550 per tonne, respectively, in October, but then raised them by INR 50 per tonne for lumps in November. Elara Securities expects the company's December quarter realisations to drop around 13% on year and around 6% sequentially due to the price cuts, leading to a fall of 16% on year and 10% on quarter in its EBITDA per tonne. "As volumes ramp up in Q4FY26, we expect NMDC to take smaller price hikes in line with strong global prices supporting EBITDA growth," Prabhudas Lilladher said.

Of the nine brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 85. This is around 7% higher than the current market price. Three brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock while one has a ‘sell' recommendation.

Shares of NMDC traded at INR 80.60 at 1407 IST on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.3%. Since reporting its September quarter earnings, the company's shares have risen around 4%. The company will detail its earnings for the December quarter Tuesday. It had reported a net profit of INR 16.94 billion for the September quarter on revenues of INR 62.61 billion.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for NMDC from nine brokerages in descending order of net profit estimate in INR billion:

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IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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