Earnings Outlook
NHPC may see sharp rise in Q3 PAT on high power generation
This story was originally published at 18:44 IST on 1 February 2026
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By Prateem Rohanekar
MUMBAI – The National Hydroelectric Power Corp. Ltd. is expected to report a sharp on-year rise in its December-quarter bottom line, driven by higher power generation and steady regulated returns, while net sales are seen rising on the back of improved plant availability and stronger output, according to brokerages. The company is expected to announce its results on Feb. 4.
The company's net profit is expected to be in the range of INR 2.89 billion-INR 8.97 billion according to estimates of three brokerages. The highest estimate for net profit is from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest is from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. The company's earnings are supported by returns on regulated assets and incentive income based on plant availability and design, according to Elara Securities.
Plant availability measures the percentage of time a power plant is capable of generating electricity, regardless of whether it is actually running or needed. It reflects a power plant's reliability and maintains efficiency.
The company's net sales are expected to range from INR 20.45 billion to INR 28.55 billion. The highest estimate for net sales is from JM Financial and the lowest is by Elara. Elara also sees the company's hydro generation at 4.73 billion units for the quarter, up 26% on year. JM Financials sees a similar 25% on-year rise in the company's power generation and Kotak Securities Ltd. sees a 23% year-on-year increase.
The highest estimate for the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is INR 15.18 billion by JM Financial and the lowest is INR 8.19 billion is by Elara.
The sharp estimated rise in NHPC's top line and bottom line might be seen as a silver lining amid concerns of flat growth of 0.3% in India's power generation, supported by higher winter-related electricity demand. Brokerages expect NHPC to report a healthy power generation on-year growth of 25-71%.
Shares of NHPC closed the special trading session on Sunday 1.5% lower at INR 77 on the National Stock Exchange. Shares of the company have fallen over 7% since the company announced its September quarter earnings.
All three brokerage reports on the company available with Informist have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 91 per share. This is over 17% higher than the current market price.
Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for NHPC from three brokerage firms in the descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:
|
Brokerages |
Net Sales |
Net Profit |
EBITDA |
|
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd |
28.55 |
8.97 |
15.18 |
|
Kotak Securities Ltd |
22.80 |
5.59 |
10.99 |
|
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd |
20.45 |
2.89 |
8.19 |
|
Average |
23.93 |
5.82 |
11.45 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Prateem Rohanekar
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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