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Informist, Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

By Gunjan Rajput

 

MUMBAI – Cummins India Ltd. is expected to report a rise in net profit for the December quarter on margin expansion, even as revenue growth remains muted due to the high base in the power generation segment, according to analysts.

 

The diesel and gas engine maker's standalone net profit for the December quarter is expected at INR 6.05 billion, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. This will be a rise of nearly 18% on year. Sequentially, the company's net profit is expected to fall about 5%.

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 7.22 billion by Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. and the lowest is INR 5.53 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Mirae Asset Sharekhan has factored in stronger execution and operating leverage in its estimate while Motilal Oswal's prediction is based on the absence of high-margin data centre orders executed in the trailing quarter.

Cummins India's December quarter revenue is projected at INR 32.06 billion, according to the average of estimates, up 4% from the year-ago quarter and over 1% on quarter. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 36.11 billion by Mirae Asset Sharekhan and the lowest is INR 29.42 billion by IDBI Capital Markets Services Ltd.
 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are estimated at INR 6.60 billion, with the EBITDA margin expected to expand 100–200 basis points on year on easing raw material prices and cost-control measures. Brokerages remain cautious on the power-generation segment, where demand is seen healthy but on-year growth is distorted by a high base and lumpy project execution. Demand in the industrial segment is expected to remain soft in the near term while the distribution business is seen providing support with steadier growth and better margins.
 

Nomura Equity Research flagged power generation as a near-term drag, with an on-year contraction of up to 17% due to a high base. However, prices are stabilising, with price increases by original equipment manufacturers expected to flow through with a lag. "Our dealer checks suggest Powergen (power generation) OEM is taking annual price increases with a quarter's lag from October," Kotak Securities Ltd. said in its report.

 

The export outlook remains uncertain, with brokerages flagging inventory correction in overseas channels and geopolitical risks. While some estimates build in modest export growth, others assume continued weakness in the reporting quarter.

Cummins India is scheduled to report its December quarter earnings Wednesday. Sunday, shares of the company closed at INR 4,020.90, down over 2%, on the National Stock Exchange. The shares are down over 6% since the company detailed its September quarter financial results. The equity markets were open Sunday on account of the presentation of the Union Budget for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) in Parliament. 

Of the 13 brokerage reports on the stock available with Informist, four have a "buy" recommendation with an average target price of INR 3,893. This is 3% lower than the current market price. Nine brokerages have a "hold" recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 4,541, nearly 13% higher than the current market price.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Cummins India, in INR billion, from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd.	36.11	7.22
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	34.56	6.52	7.42
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	31.60	6.07	6.67
IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd.	29.42	6.05	6.25
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd.	32.85	5.96	6.70
Kotak Securities Ltd.	31.99	5.89	6.85
Nomura Equity Research	30.28	5.82	6.30
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	32.21	5.74	6.60
HDFC Securities Ltd.	32.20	5.70	6.60
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	29.43	5.53	60
Average	32.06	6.04	6.60

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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