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Informist, Sunday, Feb. 1, 2026

 

By P. Madhu Kumar

 

MUMBAI – UPL Ltd. is expected to report a modest year-on-year increase in its revenue for the December quarter, on the back of currency tailwinds and growth in key overseas markets, but its bottom line will see a steep decline due to weak sectoral demand and regional headwinds, according to analysts. A high base in the year-ago period will drag the agrochemicals major's consolidated net profit, while profitability is expected to improve on a sequential basis on lower foreign exchange losses and better operating leverage.

 

UPL's consolidated revenue for the December quarter is likely to rise 4.5% on year to INR 113.9 billion, according to the average of estimates from four brokerages. Net profit, however, is expected to fall nearly 43% on year to INR 5.16 billion. On a sequential basis, the revenue is expected to decline 5.2% from the September quarter, while net profit is seen rising over 25%.

 

Estimates for the December quarter net profit range from a high of INR 5.94 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a low of INR 3.76 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. The highest estimate of INR 118.5 billion for revenue is from Kotak Securites Ltd. and the lowest projection of INR 107.5 billion is from Elara Securities.

 

UPL is likely to report high single-digit revenue growth on year, driven primarily by the depreciation of the rupee, which is expected to support growth across geographies, according to Kotak Securities. The brokerage expects modest volume growth in India, Europe, Latin America, and the rest of the world, but expects this to be partially offset by a decline in North America due to tariff-related pressures. Kotak Securities said profit margins are likely to remain broadly stable on year, as the December quarter of the previous year had already seen a recovery in margins.

 

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects UPL to report around 6% year-on-year revenue growth for the December quarter, led by double-digit growth in India and Europe.

 

Nuvama expects a more subdued performance and forecasts mid-single digit top line growth and a marginal on-year decline in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation. The brokerage highlighted challenges in North America from tariff-related uncertainties and noted the second half of 2002-26 (Apr-Mar) typically contributes 65-70% of UPL's North America revenues. It expects revenue from the region to decline about 5% on year.

 

India operations, however, are expected to benefit from a reduction in sales returns, resulting in mid-single digit growth. In Latin America, while channel inventory challenges persist, Nuvama expects Brazil and Argentina to outperform other markets, leading to around 5% growth in the region. Europe is expected to be the strongest growth driver, with an estimated 8% growth during the quarter.

 

The company's earnings EBITDA for the December quarter are estimated at INR 21.52 billion, marginally higher on year but largely flat to slightly lower sequentially, reflecting mixed operating conditions across geographies.

 

The EBITDA is likely to grow 5.7% on year after foreign exchange losses, and 10.4% on year before accounting for foreign exchange impacts, with profit growth supported by a reduction in foreign exchange losses, according to Kotak Securities. Motilal expects the EBITDA growth to be relatively muted at around 5% on year, with a margin contraction of about 20 basis points. Nuvama said UPL is likely to broadly maintain its FY26 EBITDA guidance of 12-16%.

 

Elara Securities expects agrochemical companies, including UPL, to report a weak December quarter, as key demand drivers such as crop prices and weather conditions remained unfavourable.

 

Elara noted that lower crop, horticulture, and grain prices have weakened the purchasing power of farmers, curbing their spending on discretionary and specialty crop protection products. Demand was particularly weak from chilli growers and horticulture crops, such as grapes, while falling maize prices led to crop rotation in some regions which also affected demand. Regionally, demand contracted sharply in South and West India, while East and North India remained relatively stable, though elevated channel inventories continued to weigh on near-term offtake.

 

Out of the six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with a target price of INR 812. This indicates an upside of over 22% from the closing price of INR 664.95 on Sunday. The stock is down over 9% since the company reported its December quarter earnings. The company will announce its December quarter earnings Monday.

 

Investors will closely watch management commentary on the outlook for North America amid tariff uncertainties, trends in channel inventories in Latin America, recovery in domestic demand during the rabi season, and progress on debt reduction and margin sustainability in the coming quarters.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for UPL Ltd. from six brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

Brokerage Name	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	107.460	3.76	20.64
Kotak Securities Ltd	118.51	5.89	21.60
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	115.53	5.03	22.70
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	114.20	5.94	21.14
Average	113.92	5.15	21.52

 

End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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