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Informist, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026

By Sunil Raghu

AHMEDABAD – GAIL (India) Ltd. is estimated to report a double-digit year-on-year jump in its net profit for the December quarter on higher revenue from net sales and lower tax. The company is also expected to see pressure on its petrochemicals margins and liquefied petroleum gas business margins. Muted gas transmission and marketing volumes would keep revenue almost flat year-on-year, according to analysts.

GAIL's net profit for the December quarter is expected to jump over 33% on year to INR 19 billion, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The estimates for December quarter range from over INR 21.3 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd to INR 17.4 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. In the December quarter of 2024, GAIL had a one-time gain of INR 24.4 billion on account of settlement of litigation with one of its liquefied natural gas suppliers. Kotak Securities expects the company's tax outgo during the quarter to halve on year to INR 5.76 billion, which would lead to a sharp rise in profit.

The company's revenue from operations for the quarter is expected to rise less than 1% on year to nearly INR 351 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate is over INR 368 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and lowest is nearly INR 316 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

GAIL owns and operates over 16,000 km of natural gas pipelines, with a capacity of 204 million standard cubic metres per day. Predominantly a natural gas transportation player, the company also produces nearly 1.4 million tonnes per annum of polymers and this accounts for up to 5% of the company's total annual revenue. The company also markets LPG across India under the 'GAIL Gas' brand and produces a little less than a million tonnes of LPG annually. The company will announce its quarterly results for December quarter on Saturday.

Brokerages expect GAIL to record a flat-to-muted rise in gas transmission volumes for the December quarter, against 125.93 million standard cubic metres per day in the year-ago quarter and 123.59 mscmd in the September quarter. JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. sees this flat volume level leading to muted gas transmission profitability. Separately, the brokerage sees gas trading volume rising less than 1% on quarter by 106 mscmd.

GAIL's petrochemicals revenues are expected to be lower on quarter as sales volume and prices fell during the quarter. Liquefied petroleum gas revenue is also seen falling sharply from the trailing quarter, owing to a decline in global liquefied petroleum gas prices. Kotak Securities Ltd. sees the company's petrochemicals sales volume for the December quarter falling 9.5% on year to 200,000 tonnes and average prices down 1.5% on year at INR 95 per kilogram. The sales volume of liquefied petroleum gas too are likely to be down 29% on year at 220,000 tonnes. 

Brokerages expect GAIL's December quarter earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation to decline up to 10% on quarter, led by a fall in its gas trading, petrochemicals and weak LPG business. GAIL's EBITDA for the December quarter is expected to be over INR 29.3 billion, as per the average from estimates of 10 brokerages. Systematix's estimate of over INR 32.5 billion for the EBITDA is the highest, while Nuvama's forecast of over INR 26.5 billion is the lowest.

On Thursday, shares of the company closed at INR 167.38 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.5%. GAIL's stock has fallen over 8% since the company reported its September quarter earnings on Oct. 31.

Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, eight have a 'buy' rating on GAIL with an average target price of INR 204 per share. This is nearly 12% higher compared to the current market price of the stock. Two have a 'hold' call and one has recommended selling the stock with a target price of INR 162.

Following are Oct-Dec. earnings estimates for GAIL India from 10 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit, in INR billion:

End

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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