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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

By Astha Oriel

MUMBAI - Jindal Steel Ltd. is likely to report a sharp year-on-year fall in its consolidated bottom line for the December quarter, despite a double-digit growth in volumes, according to brokerages tracking the company. The fall in the company's net profit is likely due to start-up cost of the newly commissioned blast furnace at its Angul plant in Odisha, according to Nomura Equity Research. The steel major's operating margin is also expected to decline due to a fall in net realisations as well the high import duty on raw materials.

The company's December quarter net profit is expected to come in at INR 4.46 billion, down over 53% on year, and down over 30% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerage firms. The highest estimate for the net profit is INR 6.38 billion by Nomura, whereas the lowest estimate is INR 1.86 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The expected decline in the company's net profit is not in line with the overall trend of the sector. While JSW Steel announced an increase in its net profit, Tata Steel and Steel Authority of India Ltd are expected to report a sharp increase in consolidated net profit. 

The consolidated net revenue of Jindal Steel, the country's fourth largest steel producer by revenue, is expected to be INR 129.52 billion for

Oct-Dec, up over 10% on year and nearly 11% on quarter, according to the average of estimates. The company's revenues are likely to increase due to an increase in volumes owing to expansion of capacity at its Angul plant. The revenue estimates range from a high of INR 138.95 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 121.31 billion by Nomura.

The volumes are expected to be in the range of 2 million tonnes to 2.2 million tonnes, according to the average of five estimates. The highest estimate for volume is 2.2 million tonnes by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. and Nomura, whereas the lowest estimate is 2 million tonnes from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The company's volumes in the year-ago quarter were 1.99 million tonnes.

In September, the company commissioned a 250 tonnes basic oxygen furnace converter at the Angul plant, and added three million tonnes per annum crude steelmaking capacity.  With this, the company raised its crude steel making capacity to nine million tonnes per annum from six million tonnes per annum earlier. It plans to achieve a capacity of 12 million tonnes per annum at its Angul plant by the end of the current financial year. While the capacity expansion at Angul plant is likely to boost the company's volume for the December quarter, the cost of starting the furnace converter is likely to impact the bottom line.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 17.22 billion, down over 19% on year and down more than 8% on quarter, according to the average of the estimates. Estimates for EBITDA range from a high of INR 19.05 billion by Motilal Oswal to a low of INR 15.55 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

The steel maker's EBITDA is likely to decline due to weak net sales realisations as prices of hot rolled coil and rebar have fallen. The high cost of coking coal is also likely to drag down Jindal Steel's EBITDA. As a result, the company's EBITDA per tonne is likely to decline to between INR 7,568 per tonne and INR 8,628 per tonne, according to the average of six estimates. The EBITDA per tonne was INR 11,209 per tonne in the year-ago quarter.

Analysts will watch out for management commentary on capex timelines. The company will report its December quarter results Friday. Shares of the company closed at INR 1,159.60 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, up 3.6%. The shares are up 9% since the company reported its September quarter earnings.

Of the 11 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a ‘buy' rating on the stock, with an average target price of INR 1,180 per share. This is nearly 1% lower than the current market price. Two brokerages have a ‘hold' rating on the stock, with the average target price of INR 1,081 per share.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Jindal Steel Ltd. from 10 brokerages in the descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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