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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – Lower alumina prices and sales volumes are likely to hit National Aluminium Co. Ltd.'s performance for the December quarter, according to analysts. However, a rise in aluminium prices along with growth in sales volumes of the metal is expected to partially offset the impact.

 

The state-owned aluminium company is likely to report a standalone net profit of INR 14.51 billion for the December quarter, down over 8% on year, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 16.6 billion from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 12.64 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

The company's revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to fall around 6% on year to INR 44 billion, according to the average of estimates. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a low of INR 40.06 billion from Kotak Securities Ltd. to a high of INR 47.84 billion from Motilal Oswal. Sequentially, the company's net profit is expected to rise over a percent while its revenue is expected to increase around 3%.

 

NALCO is a key producer of alumina and aluminium, and sells both commodities in the domestic and international markets. Alumina is extracted from bauxite ore and then refined to produce aluminium.

 

The company's alumina sales are expected to fall 14-20% on year. Kotak sees alumina sales for the reporting quarter at 300,000 tonnes, down 20% on year and 24% sequentially, while Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. sees NALCO's alumina volumes at 321,000 tonnes, down 14% on year. Similarly, Kotak sees aluminium sales at 115,000 tonnes, up over 8% on year, while Prabhudas Lilladher sees aluminium volumes at 118,000 tonnes, up 12% on year.

 

NALCO's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the December quarter are likely to fall over 16% on year and over 2% sequentially to INR 20.31 billion, as per the average of the estimates. The highest estimate for the company's EBITDA is INR 23.25 billion from Motilal Oswal while the lowest estimate is INR 17.89 billion from YES Securities.

 

The divergent price movement in alumina and aluminium during the reporting quarter is likely to have similarly influenced the company's EBITDA from these segments. Kotak sees NALCO's EBITDA from the alumina segment at INR 4.1 billion, down 70% on year and 41% sequentially. The brokerage expects the aluminium segment EBITDA to rise 54% on year and 22% sequentially to INR 15 billion.

 

Of the six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 265. This is around 38% lower than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' recommendation on the stock.

 

Market participants will await the management's guidance on domestic demand and the outlook for capital expenditure, Motilal Oswal said. The timeline for the commissioning of the 5th stream at its alumina refinery will also be monitored, Prabhudas Lilladher said.

 

On Thursday, shares of NALCO closed 5.6% higher at INR 428.85 on the National Stock Exchange. Since reporting its September quarter earnings, the company's shares have risen over 66%. The company will detail its earnings for the December quarter Friday. It had reported a net profit of INR 14.33 billion for the September quarter on revenue of INR 42.92 billion, both above analysts' expectations.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for National Aluminium Co. Ltd. from seven brokerages in descending order of net profit estimate in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	47.84	16.6	23.25
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	46.38	15.9	21.79
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	43.20	15.4	20.80
ICICI Securities Ltd	44.19	14.3	19.70
Kotak Securities Ltd	40.06	14.0	19.06
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	44.40	12.7	19.70
YES Securities (India) Ltd	41.95	12.6	17.89
Average	44.00	14.5	20.31

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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